MARKET SNAPSHOT

2026 Austin Forecast

2025

FORECASTED ANNUAL CHANGE

2026

$1,489

Q4 AVG. EFFECTIVE RENT

1.0%

ANNUAL CHANGE

$1,500

Q4 Avg. Effective Rent

89.3%

Q4 AVG. OCCUPANCY

0 BPS

ANNUAL CHANGE

89.3%

Q4 Avg. Occupancy

17,254

2025 COMPLETIONS

14,594

10 Yr. Avg. Annual Completions

5,137

2026 COMPLETIONS

19,661

2025 NET ABSORPTION

11,173

10 Yr. Avg. Annual Absorption

9,346

2026 NET ABSORPTION

Source: CoStar
Key Market Themes for 2026
  • Market fundamentals are stabilizing but still soft, with occupancy expected to remain steady near 89% through 2026 and implying limited near-term pricing leverage despite improved supply-demand balance.

  • The supply pipeline is resetting sharply after an outsized delivery cycle, which should reduce competitive pressure, but the market remains exposed if demand cools given the sizable vacancy that built up during the recent construction wave.

  • Rent growth is expected to remain constrained into early 2026 but turn modestly positive late in the year, leaving performance highly dependent on continued leasing momentum and a steady labor market, particularly in tech-adjacent employment.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Austin’s rental market outlook is anchored by durable demand drivers, but the metro is operating in a more mature expansion with greater dispersion across sectors...

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