Rents are moving through a correction phase and are positioned to regain momentum late in 2026. Effective rent averaged $1,219 in Q4 2025, down 2.9% from Q4 2024, but the forecast calls for rent growth to return to slightly positive by Q4 2026, marking an important inflection as supply pressure eases and pricing begins to normalize.
Occupancy is nearing a floor and should be only modestly affected in 2026. Stabilized occupancy is forecast to dip 20bps by Q4 2026, signaling that the market is moving from active supply digestion toward stabilization as new supply becomes more manageable.
Deliveries are resetting sharply, easing supply pressure into 2026. After an extended supply wave, projected 2026 deliveries fall to 3,364 units, a major step down from recent trailing 12-month delivery levels and a supportive shift for lease-up conditions across the metro.
San Antonio’s multifamily market is best described as stabilizing after a difficult supply-driven cycle, with 2026 shaping up as a transition year where the fundamentals stop deteriorating and begin to normalize...
