A supply reset drives 2026 stabilization with deliveries projected to fall -34% in 2026, which should meaningfully reduce new lease-up competition and allow rental demand to work through existing vacancies more effectively as the pipeline tightens.
With deliveries stepping down, Phoenix rent growth is expected to bottom in early 2026 and gradually firm, turning slightly positive by Q4 2026 (+0.1% YoY) as the market moves closer to stabilization.
Occupancy is expected to soften just -20 bps year-over-year by Q4 2026, the smallest annual decline since Q2 2022, reinforcing that the market is transitioning from digestion to stabilization rather than continued weakening.
Houston heads into 2026 with fundamentals still shaped by elevated vacancy and concession-driven competition, but the market is increasingly positioned for stabilization rather than continued deterioration...
