MARKET SNAPSHOT

Tucson q1 2026

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AVERAGE RENT

$1,118 Q1 2026

OCCUPANCY RATE

89.3% Q1 2026

NET ABSORPTION

432 T4Q

ANNUAL RENT CHANGE

-1.6% Q1 2026

YOY OCCUPANCY CHANGE

-70 BPS

UNIT COMPLETIONS

284 T4Q

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Demand is outpacing supply in Tucson, with trailing 12-month absorption of 432 units exceeding 284 units delivered — a constructive dynamic supported by positive net absorption in three of the last four quarters.

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The supply cycle is winding down — trailing 12-month starts have fallen to 382 units from 1,131 one year ago, and the under-construction pipeline of 1,679 units (2.0% of inventory) represents a manageable, declining forward supply burden.

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Average effective rents of $1,118 reflect a 1.6% annual decline, though a 0.5% sequential gain in Q1 2026 signals early stabilization; occupancy of 89.3% remains 70 basis points below year-ago levels but compressed at a decelerating pace.

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MARKET OUTLOOK

Tucson is navigating a late-cycle transition, supply pressure is receding, absorption outpaced deliveries in Q1, and rent momentum is beginning to stabilize. With only 1,679 units under construction...