MARKET SNAPSHOT
$1,770 3Q 2024
92.9% 3Q 2024
3,131 [YTD: 6,461]
-1.9% 3Q 2024
-60 BASIS POINTS
3,212 [YTD: 10,456]
Tampa Bay’s apartment market demonstrated solid absorption in the third quarter, with renters filling a net total of 3,131 units, nearly matching the number of available vacant units.
Three submarkets—Northwest Tampa, Hernando County, and East Tampa—reported year-over-year occupancy gains. These areas experienced limited inventory growth over the past year, with only 200 units added across all three combined.
Tampa’s economy is bolstered by population growth and significant job creation, driven by large-scale projects like the expansion of Tampa International Airport and ongoing business investments, supporting long-term demand for housing.
In the third quarter of 2024, Tampa’s multifamily market showed strong performance as leasing activity picked up during the busy fall season. A total of 3,131 units were absorbed, essentially, matching the 3,212 units that came online concurrently. While the disparity is still wide on a year to date basis, the narrow gap between supply and demand in the most recent quarter should be viewed as an encouraging trend for owners and operators. Nearly all of Tampa’s 13 submarkets saw positive net absorption, with Pasco County and Southeast Tampa standing out, contributing 45% and 21% of the total units absorbed across the market this quarter, respectively.
During the same period, the Tampa region added 3,131 new apartment units, with most of the development concentrated in four key submarkets. Pasco County led the way, contributing 42% of the new deliveries, or 1,496 units. Over the past year, Pasco County, Southeast Tampa, and Downtown Tampa have been the primary hubs of development, adding 4,447, 2,040, and 1,950 units, respectively, to the metro’s rental housing inventory.
Amid an influx of new supply, Tampa’s apartment market continues to face pressure. Although renter demand has rebounded in 2024, particularly in the second and third quarters of the year, it hasn’t kept pace with the growth in supply, resulting in a year-over-year decline in the average occupancy rate to 92.9%, down 60 basis points on the year. Despite this, Tampa still outperforms several other Sunbelt markets with similar supply challenges.
Submarket performance has varied, with South Pinellas posting the lowest occupancy rate at 92.0%, while East Tampa led with 94.1%. Of Tampa’s 13 submarkets, only three—Northwest Tampa, Hernando County, and East Tampa—reported year-over-year occupancy gains. These submarkets have seen limited inventory growth over the past year, with just 200 units added across all three. In contrast, the remaining ten submarkets experienced occupancy declines ranging from 20 to 190 basis points.
While there are signs that supply pressures are easing, occupancy is expected to remain under pressure through the end of 2025, with 6,369 additional units set to be delivered over the next four quarters, coupled with lingering vacancies from units delivered in 2024.
Tampa’s multifamily market is adjusting to the addition of 10,456 new units over the past three quarters, creating a highly competitive environment for attracting renters. This influx of supply led to a 1.9% year-over-year decrease in average effective rents in Q3 2024, bringing the average rent down to $1,770 per month—the first time it has dipped below $1,800 since Q2 2022. While other markets have seen supply levels moderate, Tampa is on track for a record number of annual deliveries by year-end. However, rent growth could return to positive territory by mid-2025.
Relatively lower-cost submarkets, such as North Pinellas and Hernando County, where rents average between $1,650 and $1,700, have shown resilience, with rent increases ranging from 0.7% to 1.9%. In contrast, downtown submarkets—where rents exceed $2,200 and a significant amount of new construction is underway—are seeing steeper rent declines as they work to absorb much of the metro’s new inventory. Despite these challenges, Tampa’s strong economic foundation and growing population continue to support market expansion.
Tampa’s economy demonstrated strong growth in August 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The metro area added 24,500 jobs, reflecting a 1.6% increase in employment. Key sectors driving this growth included Education and Health Services, which added 7,900 jobs, representing a 3.3% year-over-year increase, and Mining, Logging, and Construction, which grew by 2,800 jobs, a 4.2% rise from the previous year. Tampa’s unemployment rate remained low at 3.7%, below the national average of 4.2%.
August 2024 ANNUAL JOBS CREATED
AUGUST 2024 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
AUGUST 2024 Unemployment rate
4.2% us august rate
| Sector | Nominal Change from August 2023 to August 2024 | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|
| Education and Health Services | 7,900 | 3.3% |
| Mining, Logging, and Construction | 3,900 | 4.2% |
| Leisure and Hospitality | 2,500 | 1.5% |
| Other Services | 1,900 | 3.5% |
| Trade, Transportation, and Utilities | 1,900 | 0.7% |
| Manufacturing | 1,700 | 2.3% |
| Government | 1,600 | 1.0% |
| Financial Activities | 700 | 0.5% |
| Professional and Business Services | 600 | 0.2% |
| Information | 100 | 0.3% |
Tampa International Airport unveiled a plan for a new terminal that is expected to accommodate up to 35 million passengers annually by 2037.
AEVEX Aerospace announced the expansion and ramp-up of its Unmanned Systems production at its manufacturing facility in Tampa, FL.
The Tampa Museum of Art’s transformative expansion plan for its downtown Tampa campus is set to begin by 2025.
Tampa’s multifamily market faces both challenges and opportunities as it navigates into 2025. Strong demand has rebounded, but an influx of new supply—10,456 units added in the first three quarters—has led to a slight dip in occupancy rates, now at 92.9%. While pressures from new deliveries are expected to persist through 2025, submarkets with limited inventory expansion will likely fare better as occupancy and rents begin to grow in these areas first.
Tampa’s economic fundamentals remain solid, supported by healthy population growth and a resilient labor market. With additional supply on the horizon and continued economic expansion, including major projects like the Tampa International Airport expansion, Tampa is well-positioned for stable long-term growth despite near-term supply challenges. Rent growth is anticipated to stabilize by mid-2025 as the market adapts to these shifting dynamics.
Sources: Costar; ESRI; U.S. Census Bureau; Yardi Matrix; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
