MARKET SNAPSHOT

2026 Twin Cities Forecast

2025

FORECASTED ANNUAL CHANGE

2026

$1,549

Q4 AVG. EFFECTIVE RENT

2.0%

ANNUAL CHANGE

$1,580

Q4 Avg. Effective Rent

94.2%

Q4 AVG. OCCUPANCY

+20 BPS

ANNUAL CHANGE

94.4%

Q4 Avg. Occupancy

4,022

2025 COMPLETIONS

7,638

10 Yr. Avg. Annual Completions

4,050

2026 COMPLETIONS

7,313

2025 NET ABSORPTION

6,884

10 Yr. Avg. Annual Absorption

4,336

2026 NET ABSORPTION

Source: CoStar
Key Market Themes for 2026
  • Minneapolis’ development pipeline has cooled sharply since the 2023 peak: by Q4 2025 the market had 37 buildings under construction totaling roughly 6,000 units, down from about 18,100 units under construction in early 2023.

  • Minneapolis rent growth remained resilient through Q4 2025: market effective rent ended the quarter at $1,549 per unit, up +0.2% quarter over quarter and +2.8% over the trailing 12 months.

  • 2026 is projected to be a more balanced year in Minneapolis, with trailing-12-month absorption forecast at 4,336 units by Q4 2026 versus roughly 4,050 units of net deliveries, supporting modest occupancy firming into year-end.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Minneapolis enters 2026 with fundamentals that are stabilizing and gradually tightening, supported by a materially cooler development cycle and demand that remains consistently positive...

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