2026 is shaping up as a strong year, driven by a sharp downshift in new supply. While starts ticked up modestly in 2025, the active pipeline and forward deliveries remain well below historical norms, setting the stage for a meaningfully lighter supply environment as the year progresses.
Overall occupancy (inclusive of lease-up properties) ended Q4 2025 at 94.4%, up from a cyclical low of 93.8% in Q1, signaling improving stability as leasing catches up to deliveries. Stabilized occupancy remained stronger at 95.7%, confirming that most vacancy pressure is concentrated in newer lease-up communities.
Effective rents are projected to rise from $1,448 in Q4 2025 to roughly $1,489 by Q4 2026, as competitive pressure fades and stabilized assets regain pricing leverage.
