MARKET SNAPSHOT

2026 Knoxville Forecast

2025

FORECASTED ANNUAL CHANGE

2026

$1,448

Q4 AVG. EFFECTIVE RENT

1.6%

ANNUAL CHANGE

$1,471

Q4 Avg. Effective Rent

93.6%

Q4 AVG. OCCUPANCY

+20 BPS

ANNUAL CHANGE

93.8%

Q4 Avg. Occupancy

1,956

2025 COMPLETIONS

1,228

10 Yr. Avg. Annual Completions

1,662

2026 COMPLETIONS

1,148

2025 NET ABSORPTION

1,034

10 Yr. Avg. Annual Absorption

891

2026 NET ABSORPTION

Source: CoStar
Key Market Themes for 2026
  • Market fundamentals remain healthy with occupancy holding in the mid-93% range and demand remaining above the historical norm, but recent absorption has been directed more toward maintaining balance than generating broad-based tightening.

  • The supply outlook is improving with starts down sharply in 2025 and the under construction count now below its long-term average, setting up fewer completions in 2026 and a more supportive backdrop for occupancy stability and firmer rents once the pipeline clears.

  • Near term rent performance is expected to be muted as the market works through elevated recent deliveries, with annual rent growth only expected to turn positive in late-2026 as supply pressure gradually eases.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Knoxville’s short-term outlook remains fundamentally healthy, supported by a tight labor market and steady growth that is increasingly concentrated in education and healthcare, government, and other population-serving sectors...

Featured Tennessee Research Reports:

Austin Fragoletti

Austin Fragoletti

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Sam Jackson

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Jake Sullivan

Senior Advisor
John Endom

John Endom

Associate Advisor
Kellen Warner

Kellen Warner

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