Net absorption is forecast to outpace new completions in 2026 (1,050 units vs. 908), supporting a modest 10 bps rise in stabilized occupancy by Q4 2026 and a firmer fundamental backdrop heading into 2027.
Effective rent is forecast to increase 1.5% by Q4 2026. With completions projected to decline, operators should rely less on concessions and regain modest pricing power, especially outside the heaviest delivery pockets.
Units under construction ended 2025 at 1,605—roughly 33% below the 10-year average and 870 units lower year over year—pointing to a thinner pipeline and helping cap near-term supply pressure.
