Effective rent growth is forecast at 1.0% in 2026 with Q4 effective rents projected at $1,252. Gains should be incremental and most dependent on concession discipline and lease-up progress in the most supply-exposed pockets.
Only 277 units are forecast to deliver in 2026, an 89% stepdown from 2025, which materially reduces new supply pressure and lowers the pace of new competitive lease-ups.
Occupancy is forecast to edge down to 88.1% in 2026, reflecting ongoing digestion of existing availability. Net absorption is projected at 632 units, which is sufficient to support stabilization, but the recovery in occupancy should remain uneven by submarket.
