MARKET SNAPSHOT

2025 Oklahoma City Forecast

2024

FORECASTED ANNUAL CHANGE

2025

$1,001

Q4 AVG. EFFECTIVE RENT

2.4%

FORECASTED ANNUAL CHANGE

$1,025

Q4 Avg. Effective Rent

90.0%

Q4 AVG. OCCUPANCY

+20 BPS

FORECASTED ANNUAL CHANGE

90.2%

Q4 Avg. Occupancy

2,792

2024 COMPLETIONS

1,526

10 Yr. Avg. Annual Completions

1,254

2025 COMPLETIONS

2,265

2024 NET ABSORPTION

1,128

10 Yr. Avg. Annual Net Absorption

1,573

2025 NET ABSORPTION

Source: CoStar
Key Market Themes for 2025
  • DECLINING UNIT COMPLETIONS SIGNAL SUPPLY SHIFT

    The inventory of units under construction has dropped below the 10-year average for the first time since 2021 and now represents just 1.4% of the existing stock—significantly lower than the national benchmark of 3.4%. This trend is expected to continue, as multifamily starts declined by 30% in 2024.

  • RENTER DEMAND EXPECTED TO OUTPACE NEW SUPPLY

    Net absorption is projected to surpass new deliveries in 2025 for the first time in three years. This shift will enable occupancies to begin to tick upwards again.

  • STABLE RENT GROWTH EXPECTED

    Increasing renter demand is anticipated to further stabilize occupancy rates. Combined with a declining construction pipeline and reduced competition from new developments, these factors are expected to drive consistent rent growth in 2025.

2025 SUPPLY TRENDS

MULTIFAMILY STARTS DECLINED IN 2024

MULTIFAMILY STARTS DECLINED IN 2024

2023: 1,080 units > 2024: 815 units

Annual Increase of 265 units or -25%

10 Yr. Historical Annual Average: 1,322 units

UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION TRENDING BELOW THE 10 YEAR AVERAGE

UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION TRENDING BELOW THE 10 YEAR AVERAGE

1,600 units under construction as of December 31st 2024

10 Yr. Historical Annual Average Units UC: 2,478

35% Lower than historical average

UNIT COMPLETIONS PROJECTED TO DECREASE IN 2025

UNIT COMPLETIONS PROJECTED TO DECREASE IN 2025

2024: 2,472 units > 2025: 1,254 units

Annual Decrease of 1,538 units or -55%

10 Yr. Avg. Annual Completions: 1,526 units

The Oklahoma City multifamily market is stabilizing as supply and demand become more balanced, leading to steadier performance metrics across the metro. Construction activity in Oklahoma City has slowed moderately after a brief surge over the past two years. Currently, approximately 1,600 units are underway, marking the first time since 2021 that the total falls below the 10-year average of roughly 2,500 units. This represents just 1.4% of the existing stock, significantly lower than the U.S. average of 3.4%. Additionally, construction starts have declined sharply. While they dropped only 30% year-over-year in 2024, starts are now 77% below the recent cycle peak and 42% lower than the market’s historical average. As a result, unit completions are projected to decline by over 50% in the coming year.

Recent development has primarily concentrated in Canadian County and Edmond, driven by population growth and suburban expansion in affluent neighborhoods. Canadian County has emerged as a growing renter hub, fueled by significant population increases in this area just west of Oklahoma City. This submarket is expected to account for the largest share of new completions in 2025. Meanwhile, Edmond, a northern suburb with relatively higher income levels, continues to attract developers. The urban core is also undergoing significant transformation, drawing additional multifamily and retail developments.

2025 RENT & OCCUPANCY TRENDS
ANNUAL RENT GROWTH & OCCUPANCY
OCCUPANCY TRENDS

Demand for apartments in Oklahoma City strengthened in 2024, despite moderate supply pressure limiting occupancy gains. Net absorption reached approximately 2,265 units for the year, exceeding the 10-year average. Meanwhile, 2,792 new units were delivered to the local apartment inventory. Looking ahead, projections for 2025 indicate a shift in market dynamics, with net absorption expected to outpace new deliveries for the first time since 2021. With net demand projected to moderately outpace new supply this year, occupancy rates are expected to stabilize and rise slightly, with the stabilized occupancy rate projected to increase by 20 basis points, ending 2025 at 90.2%. Key submarkets, such as Northwest and Downtown Oklahoma City, which accounted for a significant share of net move-ins in 2024, are expected to remain demand hotspots in the coming year. Northwest Oklahoma City benefits from steady population growth and a younger demographic, while Downtown Oklahoma City continues to experience rising demand for urban living, fueled by expanding residential options and ongoing infrastructure investments that are attracting both businesses and residents.

RENT TRENDS

Rent growth in Oklahoma City remained steady in 2024, with a 2.1% annual increase as of the fourth quarter, significantly outpacing the national average of approximately 1.0%. Looking ahead, rent growth is expected to accelerate to nearly 3.0% by mid-2025 before moderating to 2.5% by year-end, consistent with typical seasonal trends.

Despite this growth, Oklahoma City continues to be an affordable market within the Sun Belt region, with average rents at approximately $1,000 per month, a 40% discount compared to the national average. Class A properties currently command average rents of $1,290 per month, while mid-tier properties average $998 per month, and lower tier properties average $790 per month. At the close of the fourth quarter, Class A properties recorded the weakest rent growth at 1.5%. However, this segment is expected to see a moderate recovery, with rents rising to $1,320 over the next 12 months, approaching the market-wide growth rate of 2.5% with a 2.3% increase. In contrast, mid- and lower-tier properties are expected to experience stronger growth, at approximately 3.3%. By year-end, mid-tier rents are forecast to reach $1,020, while lower-tier rents are projected to average $815 per month.

Submarket Rent & Occupancy

2024 INCOME & EXPENSE ANALYSIS

12-month period ending November 2024

CLICK TO VIEW FORECAST DATA

INCOME

INCOME
Income AssumptionsValue / UnitYear Change (%)
Occupancy (%)93.30%-1.1%
Rental Income / Occupied Unit$1,023.152.5%
Recoverable Expenses / Occupied Unit$52.4015.1%
Other Income / Occupied Unit$59.4015.0%
Total Income / Occupied Unit$1,134.963.6%
Operating Income
Rental Income$952.421.4%
Recoverable Expenses$48.7713.8%
Other Income$55.2813.7%
Total Income$1,056.472.5%

EXPENSES

EXPENSES
Operating ExpensesValue / UnitYear Change (%)
Payroll$111.243.5%
Marketing & Advertising$14.7313.0%
Repairs & Maintenance$84.64-3.0%
Administrative$27.064.6%
Management Fees$46.580.5%
Utilities$59.998.0%
Real Estate & Other Taxes$90.705.9%
Insurance$42.446.2%
Other Operating Expensees$0.24
Total Operating Expense$477.613.4%
Net Operating Income$578.861.7%
Please note that the income and expense data presented in this section is sourced from trusted third-party data providers and does not reflect the entire market. While we strive for accuracy, our firm does not provide any warranty or guarantee regarding the reliability or precision of this information. We recommend users exercise discretion and professional judgment when interpreting and utilizing this data.
MARKET OUTLOOK

The Oklahoma City multifamily market is set for stabilization and growth in 2025 as supply and demand dynamics continue to balance. Construction activity has slowed, with the inventory under construction falling below the 10-year average for the first time since 2021, now representing just 1.4% of the existing stock—significantly lower than the national benchmark. For the first time in three years, net absorption is projected to exceed new deliveries, driven by population growth and a robust local economy.

Efforts by city leaders to expand industries such as financial technology, aerospace, and biotechnology are anticipated to indirectly bolster multifamily demand in the coming years. Additionally, the metro boasts one of the top 20 fastest-growing populations in the nation, further supporting its economic and housing market growth.

Occupancy rates, currently at 90%, are expected to edge upwards over the next year, underpinned by a decline in new completions and consistent renter demand. Key submarkets, including Downtown Oklahoma City, Northwest Oklahoma City, and Canadian County, are positioned to lead market improvement. With average rents hovering near $1,000 per month, the market will remain affordable even as rent growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.5% by year-end. These trends highlight a promising outlook for investors and operators, as the market strengthens in the coming year.

Disclaimer: This multifamily forecast incorporates data from reputable third-party sources, including Costar, Yardi Matrix, the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and ESRI. While we make every effort to ensure accuracy, we cannot guarantee the reliability of the projections provided. Forecasts are inherently subject to change due to evolving market conditions, economic factors, and unforeseen events. We strongly encourage users to conduct independent due diligence and consult with an MMG Advisor before making any investment decisions based on this information.

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To gain further insights into the Oklahoma City market, contact our local team:

ColtonHowell

Colton Howell

Senior Director
richardRedding

Richard Redding

Senior Director
Stuart Krous 2024

Stuart Krous

Associate Advisor

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