MARKET SNAPSHOT
The Oklahoma City multifamily market is stabilizing as supply and demand become more balanced, leading to steadier performance metrics across the metro. Construction activity in Oklahoma City has slowed moderately after a brief surge over the past two years. Currently, approximately 1,600 units are underway, marking the first time since 2021 that the total falls below the 10-year average of roughly 2,500 units. This represents just 1.4% of the existing stock, significantly lower than the U.S. average of 3.4%. Additionally, construction starts have declined sharply. While they dropped only 30% year-over-year in 2024, starts are now 77% below the recent cycle peak and 42% lower than the market’s historical average. As a result, unit completions are projected to decline by over 50% in the coming year.
Recent development has primarily concentrated in Canadian County and Edmond, driven by population growth and suburban expansion in affluent neighborhoods. Canadian County has emerged as a growing renter hub, fueled by significant population increases in this area just west of Oklahoma City. This submarket is expected to account for the largest share of new completions in 2025. Meanwhile, Edmond, a northern suburb with relatively higher income levels, continues to attract developers. The urban core is also undergoing significant transformation, drawing additional multifamily and retail developments.
Demand for apartments in Oklahoma City strengthened in 2024, despite moderate supply pressure limiting occupancy gains. Net absorption reached approximately 2,265 units for the year, exceeding the 10-year average. Meanwhile, 2,792 new units were delivered to the local apartment inventory. Looking ahead, projections for 2025 indicate a shift in market dynamics, with net absorption expected to outpace new deliveries for the first time since 2021. With net demand projected to moderately outpace new supply this year, occupancy rates are expected to stabilize and rise slightly, with the stabilized occupancy rate projected to increase by 20 basis points, ending 2025 at 90.2%. Key submarkets, such as Northwest and Downtown Oklahoma City, which accounted for a significant share of net move-ins in 2024, are expected to remain demand hotspots in the coming year. Northwest Oklahoma City benefits from steady population growth and a younger demographic, while Downtown Oklahoma City continues to experience rising demand for urban living, fueled by expanding residential options and ongoing infrastructure investments that are attracting both businesses and residents.
Rent growth in Oklahoma City remained steady in 2024, with a 2.1% annual increase as of the fourth quarter, significantly outpacing the national average of approximately 1.0%. Looking ahead, rent growth is expected to accelerate to nearly 3.0% by mid-2025 before moderating to 2.5% by year-end, consistent with typical seasonal trends.
Despite this growth, Oklahoma City continues to be an affordable market within the Sun Belt region, with average rents at approximately $1,000 per month, a 40% discount compared to the national average. Class A properties currently command average rents of $1,290 per month, while mid-tier properties average $998 per month, and lower tier properties average $790 per month. At the close of the fourth quarter, Class A properties recorded the weakest rent growth at 1.5%. However, this segment is expected to see a moderate recovery, with rents rising to $1,320 over the next 12 months, approaching the market-wide growth rate of 2.5% with a 2.3% increase. In contrast, mid- and lower-tier properties are expected to experience stronger growth, at approximately 3.3%. By year-end, mid-tier rents are forecast to reach $1,020, while lower-tier rents are projected to average $815 per month.
12-month period ending November 2024
The Oklahoma City multifamily market is set for stabilization and growth in 2025 as supply and demand dynamics continue to balance. Construction activity has slowed, with the inventory under construction falling below the 10-year average for the first time since 2021, now representing just 1.4% of the existing stock—significantly lower than the national benchmark. For the first time in three years, net absorption is projected to exceed new deliveries, driven by population growth and a robust local economy.
Efforts by city leaders to expand industries such as financial technology, aerospace, and biotechnology are anticipated to indirectly bolster multifamily demand in the coming years. Additionally, the metro boasts one of the top 20 fastest-growing populations in the nation, further supporting its economic and housing market growth.
Occupancy rates, currently at 90%, are expected to edge upwards over the next year, underpinned by a decline in new completions and consistent renter demand. Key submarkets, including Downtown Oklahoma City, Northwest Oklahoma City, and Canadian County, are positioned to lead market improvement. With average rents hovering near $1,000 per month, the market will remain affordable even as rent growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.5% by year-end. These trends highlight a promising outlook for investors and operators, as the market strengthens in the coming year.
