Tulsa 2Q23
Multifamily Market Report
$958
average rent
94.6%
average occupancy rate
$273M
ANNUAL sales volume
2.9%
YoY rent change
-2.2 POINTS
yoy occupancy change
10 ANNUAL
individual transactions
Supply & Demand
2Q23
179 Units
QUARTERLY DEMAND
YTD: -146
69 Units
QUARTERLY COMPLETIONS
YTD: 138
Annual Demand vs Completions
-
Completions
-
Demand
Demand Trends
- After four consecutive quarters of negative absorption, demand swung to the positive in the second quarter. New renters outpaced new vacancies, leading to a net absorption total of 179 units for the quarter.
- Three out of five Tulsa submarkets reported positive net absorption in this quarter. Central Tulsa led the way with renters here over 170 new units.
Completion Trends
- In Q2 2023, the apartment inventory in Tulsa grew by a modest 69 units, all of which were added to the West Tulsa submarket.
- Over the last four quarters, new supply has been limited, with only 347 units added to the local inventory, amounting to roughly a 0.5% inventory growth. In the past year, the South Tulsa/Broken Arrow submarket has been the main recipient of this new supply, accounting for 40% of the total new units in the market.
Demand Outlook
- In the next four quarters, demand is expected to fluctuate across Tulsa’s apartment market.
- The East Tulsa and West Tulsa submarkets are predicted to maintain positive annual absorption 2Q 2024. In contrast, the remaining three Tulsa submarkets are projected to experience negative absorption.
New Supply Outlook
- Over the next four quarters, the Tulsa apartment market is poised to witness a substantial influx of new units, marking the largest addition to the pipeline since 2019.
- However, the scheduled delivery of 981 units only constitutes 1.4% of Tulsa’s current inventory. Despite the increase in unit availability, owners and operators are expected to efficiently manage unit occupancy without significant difficulties.
Occupancy & Rent Trends
RENT VS OWN
MONTHLY PAYMENT
$1,533
Average Monthly Mortgage Payment
$958
Average Monthly Rent
Occupancy trends
Historically known for its robust occupancy rates averaging 95.6% over the last five years, the Tulsa metropolitan apartment market saw a year-over-year decline of 220 basis points in Q2 2023, bringing the current average occupancy rate to 94.6%. However, this was offset by a quarter-over-quarter improvement of 20 basis points. Among multifamily classes, Class B units led with the highest occupancy level at 95.5%, followed by Class C and Class A units at 93.7% and 93.6% respectively. On a submarket level, North Tulsa demonstrated the strongest occupancy performance at 97.0%, while Central Tulsa lagged with an occupancy rate of 93.8%.
RENTAL TRENDS
Average effective rent growth in the Tulsa apartment market has mirrored the national trend, moderating from its peak gains in the previous year. In Q2 2023, rents for new leases grew by 2.9% year-over-year, falling below the market’s five-year average of 5.9%. This is in line with current trends in most southern and sub belt markets. With an average monthly rental rate of $958, Tulsa offers more affordable rents compared to its regional counterparts.
In terms of product classes, Class A units, which had previously shown strong rent performance, experienced slower annual effective rent growth of 0.8% in the most recent quarter. Meanwhile, Class C units led with a brisk 4.9% annual growth rate, and Class B units followed with 3.0% growth. This suggests that some Tulsa residents might be choosing more cost-effective rental options in the current economic climate.
Submarket Rent & Occupancy
| Submarket | Average Occupancy | Annual Occupancy Change | Average Monthly Rent | Annual Rent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Tulsa | 93.8% | -2.0% | $885 | 3.3% |
| East Tulsa | 94.4% | -2.6% | $806 | 6.2% |
| North Tulsa | 97.0% | -1.7% | $1,054 | 7.9% |
| South Tulsa/Broken Arrow | 94.9% | -2.2% | $1,049 | 0.7% |
| West Tulsa | 94.8% | -2.5% | $1,055 | 3.9% |
| Tulsa, OK | 94.6% | -2.2% | $958 | 2.9% |
Units by Submarket Delivering in 2023
1,102
Units Under Construction
981
Units UC Delivering In the Next 4 Quarters
Percentage of Units Under Construction
Percentage of Units Delivering Next 4Q
Sales Activity
The Tulsa apartment market kicked off the year with more subdued transaction activity. Over the past four quarters, 10 properties changed hands, resulting in a trade volume of $273.0 million, as reported by Real Capital Analytics. This figure represents a year-on-year decrease of 53%. Interestingly, the majority of the annual volume was loaded in the third quarter of 2022, which influenced per unit pricing. The rolling 12-month average price per unit (PPU) measured $139,200 in the second quarter, reflecting an increase of 38% over the previous year’s average PPU. Despite the likelihood that transaction activity may not reach the levels observed in the previous year, Tulsa continues to be attractive to investors. The combination of the market’s relative affordability and solid economic foundation makes it a promising prospect for those seeking investment opportunities.
- Vesta Capital
- Venterra Properties
- Weidner Apt Homes
- Kushner Companies
- Juniper Investment Group
- Case & Associates
- Blackridge Companies
- Wolff Company
- Bomasada Group
- Black Gold Group
TRANSACTION VOLUME
Annual Transaction Volume
Y-O-Y Change
Annual Individual
Transaction Count
Price Per Unit
Annual Price Change
* Trailing 4Q average PPU
* Preliminary Data from RCA – Individual transaction $2.5M +
Economy
In May 2023, the Tulsa area realized a net gain of 8,600 jobs from May 2022, representing a 1.9% increase in employment. Consequently, the unemployment rate dropped by 20 basis points compared to the previous year, reaching 2.9%. This rate is significantly lower than the national benchmark of 3.4%. The mining and logging sector witnessed the most substantial job gains, with an addition of 3,100 positions, reflecting a 6.8% expansion. Additionally, the education and health services industry experienced the greatest sector expansion at 7.7%, with 1,900 jobs added.
8.6k
May Annual Jobs Created
1.9%
May 23 Employment growth
2.9%
May 23 Unemployment rate
3.4% us may rate
Top 5 Employment Sector Annual Change
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| Sector | Change from May 2022 to May 2023 | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|
| Mining and logging | 3,100 | 6.8% |
| Education and health services | 1,900 | 7.7% |
| Manufacturing | 1,600 | 2.5% |
| Trade, transportation, and utilities | 1,400 | 3.0% |
| Information | 500 | 2.5% |
| Financial activities | 400 | 0.7% |
| Professional and business services | 100 | 2.8% |
| Other services | 100 | 0.4% |
| Government | 100 | 0.1% |
| Construction | (200) | -3.6% |
| Leisure and hospitality | (400) | -0.5% |
Major Economic Developments
36 Degrees North
Hub for Local Tech Entrepreneurs Focus
$572.5M Estimated Economic Impact
2.2k Jobs Created in Last 5 Years
Third Location Opened in City Hall Recent Expansion
Panasonic EV Battery Plant
$5.5B Investment
3,500 New Jobs Created
Pryor, OK Location
5M SF Facility Size
2025 Estimated Timeline Completion
Tulsa Remote Program
Attracting Remote Workers to Tulsa Program Purpose
2k+ Since 2018 New Remote Workers
Fostering Tulsa's Knowledge Center Program Goal
Economic Effects Every Two Participants Create One Full-time Job
Market Outlook
Despite a national slowdown, the Tulsa market continues to attract strong investor interest. Presently, 1,102 housing units are under construction, and approximately 981 units are slated for completion within the next four quarters. Of Tulsa’s five submarkets, only three—led by Central Tulsa with 554 new units expected to come online—will see new deliveries in the upcoming year. While there may be temporary impacts to rent growth and occupancy rates, these are not cause for significant concern as the market is expected to normalize over the coming years. The long-term outlook for Tulsa remains positive, bolstered by a stable economy, controlled construction growth, and favorable employment trends. These factors are expected to sustain demand and enhance the market’s resilience against potential challenges.
Sources: RealPage; BLS; MSCI; Tulsa Business Journal; Tulsa Economic Development Corporation.
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