Tulsa 1Q 2024 Market Report

MARKET SNAPSHOT

AVERAGE RENT

$980 1Q 2024

1Q 2024 RENT CHANGE

4.2%

OCCUPANCY RATE

91.8% 1Q 2024

ANNUAL OCCUPANCY CHANGE

0 BASIS POINTS

TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSE ANNUAL CHANGE

6.8% (FEB 2024)

NET OPERATING INCOME ANNUAL CHANGE

7.2% (FEB 2024)

* Please note that these employment figures have been adjusted for seasonal variations and are based on Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.

** Please note that these unemployment rates are estimates that have not been adjusted for seasonal variations, and they are derived from Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Robust Rent Performance: In the first quarter, Tulsa’s rental rates experienced a significant increase of 4.2%, exceeding the national average growth of 0.8%. Notably, Wagoner County saw an impressive rent increase of 7.6%.
  • Positive Net Absorption: In the first quarter of 2024, Tulsa continued to show stable performance with a positive net absorption of nearly 100 units.
  • Stabilized Occupancy Remain Unchanged: Despite a surge of new units coming online, stabilized occupancy remained unchanged from the previous year in the first quarter of 2024. Additionally, six Tulsa submarkets maintained occupancy rates above the 95.0% threshold.

Supply & Demand

1Q 2024

96 Units

QUARTERLY DEMAND

788 Units

QUARTERLY COMPLETIONS

Annual Demand vs Completions

Demand Trends

In the first quarter of 2024, the Tulsa metro apartment market showed steady demand, with approximately 100 units absorbed on a net basis. Although the number of units absorbed was significantly less than the 788 units delivered during the quarter—the second highest quarterly delivery in the past decade—the market dynamics were still robust. Annually, renters occupied 780 units, compared to 1,200 units delivered, indicating that while the supply still outstrips demand, the gap is narrowing. Looking ahead, a more constrained construction pipeline is anticipated for Tulsa, which will allow local demand to more effectively absorb the high level of new units that were introduced over the past year. Among Tulsa fifteen submarkets, only five experienced net move-outs.

Construction Trends

At the close of the first quarter of 2024, approximately 1,770 market-rate units were under construction in Tulsa, surpassing the 10-year average of 1,200 units. Since 2010, Tulsa’s inventory has grown by 16%, which is below the 20% growth seen in neighboring Oklahoma City. Construction is predominantly concentrated in South Tulsa/Broken Arrow and Downtown Tulsa, areas characterized by stable population growth and favorable renter demographics. Developers are strategically targeting these regions in response to demographic trends, with population increases being most significant in areas with convenient access to downtown and proximity to highly rated school systems. South Tulsa has led the market in multifamily deliveries since 2010, contributing over 2,500 units. However, construction activity is expected to slow down due to a recent decline in new starts and the increasing cost of financing new projects.

Occupancy & Rent Trends

OCCUPANCY TRENDS

Despite nationwide supply-related challenges, the Tulsa apartment market has shown resilience with continued positive net absorption. After a temporary slowdown in deliveries last year, the rate of completions surged in the first quarter, bringing a record number of new units to the market. Even with this influx of new units, stabilized occupancy levels remained unchanged from the prior year at 91.8%. Among Tulsa’s fifteen submarkets, only five saw declines in their average occupancy rates, yet these areas still maintained occupancy figures above their long-term average. Notably, Osage County recorded an impressive occupancy rate of 98.1%, with five other submarkets also exceeding the 95.0% threshold. In contrast, the Midtown South submarket recorded the lowest occupancy rate at 88.3%, despite experiencing no new deliveries over the past year and recording one of the highest rates of rent growth among the submarkets.

$1,538

Average Monthly Mortgage Payment

RENT TRENDS

During the first quarter of 2024, Tulsa saw a robust 4.2% year-over-year increase in average effective rents, reaching $980 per month. This performance has consistently ranked Tulsa among the top markets for rent growth over the past year. Rent increases varied across submarkets, with Wagoner County experiencing a notable high of 7.6%, while rents in South Tulsa County remained unchanged. Additionally, no Tulsa submarkets reported annual decreases in rent, indicating overall healthy market conditions.

On a dollar basis, the Downtown Tulsa and South Tulsa County submarkets continue to command some of the highest rents, maintaining premiums of 32% and 22%, respectively, above the metro average. As the Tulsa MSA keeps attracting new residents and businesses, the multifamily sector is poised to sustain solid fundamentals. This stability is likely to attract outside capital to the area, as investors seek steadier growth compared to the anemic rent increases observed in many other Sunbelt markets.

$980

Average Monthly Rent

Submarket Rent & Occupancy

Submarket Construction Pipeline

Sales Activity

Preliminary data from the MSCI for the first quarter of 2024 shows that sales of individually traded, conventional multifamily assets in Tulsa, OK, reached approximately $16.6 million, marking a 36.2% increase from the same quarter the previous year. However, on an annual basis, which provides a more accurate measure of activity in a lower velocity market like Tulsa, there was an 83% contraction compared to the same period a year ago. While transaction activity has slowed, there could be an uptick in the coming year as buyers from outside Oklahoma look for growth opportunities at a lower cost basis in the Sunbelt region.

  • Capital Assets Inc
  • Case & Associates
  •  

*Most Active Buyers and Sellers are based on the sale volume of apartment units.

TRANSACTION VOLUME


YTD Transaction Volume

Y-O-Y Change

Individual Transaction Count

Price Per Unit

Annual PPU Change

* Trailing 4Q average PPU

* Preliminary Data from RCA – Individual transaction $2.5M +

Income & Expense Analysis

Please note that the income and expense data presented in this section is sourced from third-party providers. Our firm does not provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or reliability of this information. We recommend that users exercise their own discretion and professional judgment when interpreting and utilizing this data.

Income & Expenses

Income AssumptionsValue / UnitYear Change (%)
Rental Income / Occupied Unit$1,002.12 7.5%
Recoverable Expenses / Occupied Unit$59.26 7.3%
Other Income / Occupied Unit$60.13 2.2%
Total Income / Occupied Unit$1,121.507.2%
Rental Income$959.81 7.4%
Recoverable Expenses$56.76 7.2%
Other Income$57.59 2.1%
Total Income$1,074.167.1%
Operating ExpensesValue / UnitYear Change (%)
Payroll$125.10 5.7%
Repairs & Maintenance$47.62 7.0%
Leasing$36.48 6.2%
General$41.00 3.8%
Marketing & Advertising$14.56 16.5%
Repairs & Maintenance$84.67 6.9%
Cleaning$8.35 7.2%
Roads & Grounds$16.08 8.4%
General$60.24 6.5%
Administrative$22.94 3.5%
Security$4.86 -5.4%
General$18.08 6.2%
Management Fees$46.59 6.8%
Utilities$66.72 6.8%
Electric$13.62 6.6%
Gas$1.09 -12.0%
Water/Sewer$52.02 7.3%
Real Estate & Other Taxes$80.45 2.6%
Insurance$43.50 17.5%
Other Operating Expensees$0.13
Total Operating Expense$484.686.8%
Value / UnitYear Change (%)
Net Operating Income$589.49 7.2%

Market Outlook

Amid a broader slowdown in growth across much of the U.S., Tulsa’s comparatively strong performance in rent growth could attract the attention of outside investors. Currently, the area has 1,768 housing units under development, with 65% expected to be completed within the next four quarters. South Tulsa/Broken Arrow is set to lead this development, with plans to add 359 units. While the influx of new units may temporarily impact rent growth and occupancy rates, these effects are anticipated to be short-lived rather than long-term setbacks. The market is expected to adjust and maintain stability over time. Supported by a robust economy, consistent construction activity, and positive employment trends, Tulsa’s long-term outlook remains favorable. These factors are likely to sustain demand and enhance Tulsa’s resilience against potential future challenges.

Sources: MSCI; Yardi Matrix; Costar.

To Gain Further Insights Into The TULSA Market Please Reach Out To Our local Team

Richard Redding

Senior Director

Colton Howell

Senior Director

Stuart Krous

Associate Advisor