$1,225 4Q 2023
$1,252 4Q 2024
2.2%
90.2% 4Q 2023
90.1% 4Q 2024
-10 BASIS POINTS
1.16M 2023
1.18M 2024
3.8% 2023
3.7% 2024
* Please note that these employment figures have been adjusted for seasonal variations and are based on Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.
** Please note that these unemployment rates are estimates that have not been adjusted for seasonal variations, and they are derived from Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.
FORECASTED ABSORPTION
FORECASTED NEW SUPPLY
In 2023, San Antonio’s multifamily market was marked by a recovery in absorption, with 3,400 units absorbed, a significant turnaround from the negative absorption of 1,200 units in 2022. As we look ahead to 2024, the market is expected to experience an even greater surge in absorption, driven by an expanding job market and increasing wages. Projections indicate that absorption could reach around 9,000 units, nearly tripling the figure from 2023. This increase is anticipated to significantly reduce the current imbalance between new supply and demand, which has been a challenge for market fundamentals over the past two years.
Downtown San Antonio is poised to be a key contributor, potentially accounting for over a third of the market’s absorption. While the overall occupancy rate, currently at 90.2%, might face a slight decline of 10 basis points by the end of the year, most submarkets are expected to maintain stable occupancy rates. This suggests a positive outlook for the San Antonio multifamily market in 2024, reflecting both its resilience and potential for growth.
The San Antonio apartment market is currently undergoing a significant expansion, highlighted by the addition of approximately 7,000 apartment units in 2023. A closer look at the ongoing developments reveals that a significant number of units, totaling 17,399, are currently under construction. Out of these, 10,567 units are anticipated to be completed in the coming twelve months, which will increase the apartment inventory by 4.9%.
Construction is active across a wide range of San Antonio’s submarkets, with development occurring in 12 out of the 16 identified areas. The North San Antonio submarket is leading in terms of volume, contributing nearly 20% of the units expected to be delivered in 2024. Alongside this, other areas like Comal County, Southeast San Antonio, Far West San Antonio, and Northeast San Antonio are also key centers of activity. Each of these submarkets is poised to see their housing inventories grow by over 1,000 units this year.
Average Monthly Mortgage Payment
Average Monthly Rent
The last quarter of 2023 marked the third consecutive quarter of negative rent growth for San Antonio, culminating in a 2.1% annual decrease. This trend, influenced by ongoing supply side pressure, is expected to persist through the first half of 2024, a period typically characterized by slower leasing activity. However, a change is anticipated later in the year, as absorption is forecasted to gain momentum. This increase in absorption is expected to offset the significant supply-demand imbalance that has defined the San Antonio market over the past two years. A robust leasing season in the spring and summer is projected to reverse the trend, leading to a positive rent growth of 2.2% by the year’s end.
Performance will vary across San Antonio’s 16 submarkets. Kendall County, with a smaller inventory, is expected to experience a rent growth of 3.0% by the final quarter. In contrast, Midtown San Antonio, which has seen a continuous influx of new supply, is predicted to lag behind with a 1.9% growth rate. The overarching narrative for San Antonio’s apartment market in 2024 is one of transition from recovery to stability. Looking beyond 2024, as the number of new units delivered decreases and demand, bolstered by the metro’s strong economic drivers, stabilizes, the market is likely to shift towards growth.
| Submarket | Q4 2023 Stabilized Occupancy | Q4 2024 Stabilized Occupancy (f) | Annual Occupancy Change (2024/2023) | Q4 2023 Average Monthly Rent | Q4 2024 Average Monthly Rent (f) | Annual Rent Change (2024/2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atascosa County | 88.8% | 88.5% | -0.3% | $1,042 | $1,071 | 2.7% |
| Comal County | 92.3% | 92.3% | 0.0% | $1,464 | $1,492 | 1.9% |
| Downtown San Antonio | 92.8% | 92.8% | 0.1% | $1,388 | $1,423 | 2.5% |
| Far West San Antonio | 90.1% | 90.0% | -0.1% | $1,234 | $1,258 | 2.0% |
| Guadalupe County | 93.4% | 93.4% | 0.0% | $1,203 | $1,231 | 2.3% |
| Kendall County | 93.0% | 93.1% | 0.0% | $1,332 | $1,371 | 3.0% |
| Medina County | 96.1% | 96.1% | 0.0% | $889 | $916 | 3.0% |
| Midtown San Antonio | 89.8% | 89.8% | -0.1% | $1,752 | $1,786 | 1.9% |
| North Central San Antonio | 86.5% | 86.3% | -0.3% | $1,149 | $1,176 | 2.4% |
| North San Antonio | 90.4% | 90.4% | -0.1% | $1,298 | $1,326 | 2.2% |
| Northeast San Antonio | 90.4% | 90.3% | -0.1% | $1,115 | $1,141 | 2.3% |
| Northwest San Antonio | 90.1% | 90.0% | -0.1% | $1,238 | $1,265 | 2.2% |
| Southeast San Antonio | 90.1% | 89.9% | -0.2% | $1,103 | $1,129 | 2.3% |
| Southwest San Antonio | 90.3% | 90.2% | 0.0% | $955 | $978 | 2.5% |
| Westside San Antonio | 90.7% | 90.6% | -0.1% | $918 | $941 | 2.6% |
| Wilson County | 89.8% | 89.5% | -0.3% | $1,205 | $1,237 | 2.7% |
| Market | 90.2% | 90.1% | -0.1% | $1,225 | $1,252 | 2.2% |
4Q 2023 Unit Inventory
Number of Units Under Construction
Number of Units UC Delivering
In the Next 4 Quarters
| Submarket | Unit Inventory: 4Q 2023 | Units Under Construction | % of Existing Inventory UC | % of Total UC | Units UC Delivering In the Next 4 Quarters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atascosa County | 379 | 0 | 0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Comal County | 9,979 | 2,066 | 21% | 11.9% | 1,276 |
| Downtown San Antonio | 6,590 | 1,356 | 21% | 7.8% | 740 |
| Far West San Antonio | 27,738 | 3,383 | 12% | 19.4% | 1,069 |
| Guadalupe County | 3,569 | 1,218 | 34% | 7.0% | 773 |
| Kendall County | 2,006 | 192 | 10% | 1.1% | 191 |
| Medina County | 505 | 0 | 0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Midtown San Antonio | 3,208 | 1,025 | 32% | 5.9% | 911 |
| North Central San Antonio | 15,954 | 30 | 0% | 0.2% | 29 |
| North San Antonio | 36,672 | 3,172 | 9% | 18.2% | 2,057 |
| Northeast San Antonio | 20,819 | 916 | 4% | 5.3% | 915 |
| Northwest San Antonio | 59,513 | 1,590 | 3% | 9.1% | 1,017 |
| Southeast San Antonio | 13,050 | 1,486 | 11% | 8.5% | 1,218 |
| Southwest San Antonio | 4,678 | 965 | 21% | 5.5% | 371 |
| Westside San Antonio | 8,514 | 0 | 0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Wilson County | 432 | 0 | 0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Market | 213,606 | 17,399 | 8.1% | 100.0% | 10,567 |
Preliminary data from MSCI shows that 2023 ended on a low note for sales of conventional multifamily assets in San Antonio. Despite the usual end-of-year rush to record sales and the time taken by data services to consolidate transactions, it appears unlikely that any late surge would significantly change the overall trend. The final quarter of 2023 registered a sales volume of $156.2 million, the lowest for a fourth quarter in over ten years. The annual transaction volume totaled $1.2 billion, spread over 39 individual asset sales, marking a 59% reduction in dollar volume from the previous year. However, this figure is in line with the annual average seen before the pandemic.
The assets traded in 2023 were predominantly of high caliber, as indicated by the year-over-year increase in the price per unit (PPU). Looking forward to 2024, if interest rates stabilize or decline, San Antonio’s enduring appeal as a prime multifamily investment destination could offer promising opportunities for informed investors. The potential for more attractively priced deals to appear on the market presents a favorable scenario for those looking to capitalize on long-term investment prospects in this market.
*Most Active Buyers and Sellers are based on the sale volume of apartment units.
* Trailing 4Q average PPU
* Preliminary Data from RCA – Individual transaction $2.5M +
P=Preliminary
| Sector | Employment Change 2023 to 2024 | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Employment | 16,600 | 1.4% |
| Manufacturing | 800 | 1.4% |
| Construction | 1,200 | 1.9% |
| Trade, Transport., & Utilities | 1,100 | 0.6% |
| Information | 300 | 1.6% |
| Financial Activities | 1,000 | 1.0% |
| Professional & Business Services | (200) | -0.1% |
| Education & Health Services | 5,100 | 2.9% |
| Government | 3,500 | 1.9% |
| Lesuire & Hospitality | 2,800 | 1.9% |
| Natural Resources & Mining | 1,100 | 13.7% |
| Other Services | (100) | -0.2% |
San Antonio’s economic outlook for 2024 is looking bright, with significant job growth on the horizon, contributing to the stabilization of the apartment market. The city is poised to add 16,600 new jobs, which is expected to further reduce the local unemployment rate. As of the end of 2023, this rate stood at 3.8%, closely aligning with the national average, and it’s anticipated to 3.7%.
The metro’s attractiveness as a destination for domestic migrants plays a crucial role in bolstering its economy. San Antonio’s economic strength is underpinned by the presence of four military bases, a substantial medical industry, and the headquarters of major firms such as USAA and H-E-B. These elements contribute significantly to the market’s economic stability and growth.
Additionally, San Antonio is increasingly becoming a hub for industry leaders. Notable developments, such as the $265 million investment by the global manufacturer JCB in South San Antonio, are testament to this trend. Projects like these are expected to be a major economic stimulus for San Antonio in the coming years, enhancing its appeal as a vibrant and growing market, both for businesses and residents alike.
