$1,246 1Q 2024
2.3%
91.3% 1Q 2024
-30 BASIS POINTS
8.4% (FEB 2024)
0.3% (FEB 2024)
* Please note that these employment figures have been adjusted for seasonal variations and are based on Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.
** Please note that these unemployment rates are estimates that have not been adjusted for seasonal variations, and they are derived from Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.
QUARTERLY DEMAND
QUARTERLY COMPLETIONS
In the first quarter of 2024, 179 units were absorbed, surpassing the 113 new units that came online during this period. Demand was relatively balanced between mid-tier and luxury communities, consistent with the trend seen in new supply delivered during the post-pandemic era. However, the workforce housing segment showed signs of weakness, as absorption remained below historical norms. The recent sharp rise in the cost of living has impacted many lower-income households, contributing to this decline.
In line with national trends, construction activity has slowed significantly in recent quarters due to the sharp rise in interest rates and the high costs of land, labor, and materials. Currently, 645 units are under construction in New Orleans, significantly lower than the five-year average of 950 units. This figure represents just 0.9% of the existing inventory, compared to the national benchmark of 4.4%. In the past five years, a net 4,000 units have been added, expanding total inventory by about 6%. Despite this growth, around 80% of New Orleans’ 71,000 market-rate multifamily units are rated as mid-tier or lower.
In the first quarter of 2024, demand in New Orleans’ multifamily market rebounded after two consecutive quarters of negative absorption in the latter half of 2023. This turnaround can be partly attributed to lower inflation and improved consumer confidence among residents. Additionally, the stabilized occupancy rate stood at 91.8% at the end of the first quarter, remaining consistent quarter-over-quarter and indicating a return of stability to the market after significant fluctuations in recent years. However, recent apartment leasing activity hasn’t been evenly distributed across the city. Most of the trailing 12-month absorption has occurred in affordable suburban areas such as Westbank/Jefferson Parish and Algiers, which are also leading in rent growth. Meanwhile, more expensive areas are experiencing flat to negative rent gains.
Average Monthly Mortgage Payment
By the end of the first quarter of 2024, annual rent growth in New Orleans had reached 2.3%, representing a cumulative increase of 14% over the past three years. This rise brought the average effective rent in the city to $1,246 per month, which is more than $400 below the national average. With a median household take-home income of $55,000, rent accounts for about 27% of median income, a significant saving compared to the average monthly mortgage payment of $1,669, which consumes 36% of median household take-home income. This suggests that New Orleans’ rental rates could continue to grow if the market remains on its current trajectory.
Average Monthly Rent
Investors in New Orleans’ multifamily market continue to proceed cautiously due to tighter lending standards, higher borrowing costs, and wide bid-ask spreads. This is evident in the trailing 12-month investment activity, which saw only six conventional multifamily properties change hands, a notable drop from the 12 properties traded in 2021. As Louisiana is a non-disclosure state, pricing remains somewhat unclear. However, according to data from MSCI, the six transactions totaled approximately $103 million over the past 12 months, representing a roughly 75% decrease compared to the same period a year ago.
* Preliminary Data from RCA – Individual transaction $2.5M +
Please note that the income and expense data presented in this section is sourced from third-party providers. Our firm does not provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or reliability of this information. We recommend that users exercise their own discretion and professional judgment when interpreting and utilizing this data.
| Income Assumptions | Value / Unit | Year Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Rental Income / Occupied Unit | $1,130.47 | 4.5% |
| Recoverable Expenses / Occupied Unit | $31.46 | -41.4% |
| Other Income / Occupied Unit | $60.92 | 6.3% |
| Total Income / Occupied Unit | $1,222.85 | 2.5% |
| Operating Income | ||
| Rental Income | $1,044.42 | 6.7% |
| Recoverable Expenses | $29.06 | -40.1% |
| Other Income | $56.29 | 8.5% |
| Total Income | $1,129.77 | 4.7% |
| Operating Expenses | Value / Unit | Year Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Payroll | $128.99 | 3.6% |
| Repairs & Maintenance | $50.73 | 0.8% |
| Leasing | $45.52 | 6.7% |
| General | $32.74 | 3.8% |
| Marketing & Advertising | $14.69 | 19.0% |
| Repairs & Maintenance | $117.31 | 2.8% |
| Cleaning | $12.90 | -0.1% |
| Roads & Grounds | $13.67 | 0.7% |
| General | $90.74 | 3.6% |
| Administrative | $44.67 | 9.3% |
| Security | $10.51 | 13.1% |
| General | $34.16 | 8.0% |
| Management Fees | $41.86 | -2.2% |
| Utilities | $96.16 | -0.5% |
| Electric | $24.08 | -8.0% |
| Gas | $4.07 | -20.4% |
| Water/Sewer | $68.01 | 4.4% |
| Real Estate & Other Taxes | $61.04 | 2.7% |
| Insurance | $140.70 | 34.9% |
| Other Operating Expensees | $4.71 | |
| Total Operating Expense | $650.13 | 8.4% |
| Value / Unit | Year Change (%) | |
| Net Operating Income | $479.64 | 0.3% |
|---|
Looking ahead, the economic stability of households will shape demand in New Orleans’ multifamily market over the next few quarters. Rising capital costs and stricter lending standards have significantly reduced new construction starts, suggesting fewer deliveries in the near future. As a result, vacancies are expected to tighten, and rent growth is anticipated to improve throughout 2024.
New Orleans’ heavy reliance on the tourism industry presents unique challenges that other markets don’t face. The leisure and hospitality sector remains the furthest from recovery, still down 10,000 jobs, as conventions and festivals, critical drivers of hotel demand, have been slower to recover than general leisure travel. Despite this, the cruise ship sector recently achieved record-high passenger numbers, and the city remains a desirable destination due to its unique culture and walkable neighborhoods. This distinctive lifestyle will continue to draw transplants seeking a more affordable yet vibrant experience in one of America’s most iconic cities.
