CONSTRUCTION PIPELINE

National Q3 2025

0

MF UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

0

(+27.4% YoY)
JULY SAAR 5+ UNIT STARTS

0

(-1.8% YoY)
JULY SAAR 5+ UNIT PERMITS

Q3 U.S. MULTIFAMILY PIPELINE-QUICK TAKE

After a marked slowdown in multifamily construction over the past year, July sharpened the picture: multifamily (5+ units) starts rose to 470k seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)—up 11.6% m/m and 27.4% y/y—while permits eased to 430k SAAR (-9.9% m/m, -1.8% y/y). The divergence points to backlog clearing—projects already teed up are breaking ground—rather than a broad-based reacceleration of the forward pipeline. Year to date, starts are up 18.1% versus +1.4% for permits, signaling that near-term supply is supported even as new entries into the pipeline thin. Given wide confidence intervals around monthly estimates, it’s still too early to call a durable rebound, though July’s run rate is the strongest in roughly two years.

CoStar’s construction and delivery data reinforce that arc: supply additions reached a 40-year high in 2024, with annual deliveries peaking in Q4 near 700,000 units. From here, CoStar projects annual supply to fall about one-third in 2025 (≈460,000 units) and nearly 40% in 2026 (≈280,000 units)—the lowest since 2014. In short, starts are popping as the backlog converts to groundbreakings, but softer permitting and a shrinking under-construction pipeline point to smaller delivery wave in 2026.

Headline SAAR — July 2025 (U.S.)

Permits & Starts (seasonally adjusted annual rate, thousands of units)
Category5+ Units (MF)m/m (Total)m/m (MF 5+)y/y (Total)y/y (MF 5+)
Permits430-2.8%-9.9%-5.7%-1.8%
Starts4705.2%11.6%12.9%27.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Year-to-Date (Jan–Jul) — Not Seasonally Adjusted

Permits (NSA, thousands)
Category2024 YTD2025 YTD% Chg
Total881.9851.5-3.5%
1-Unit599.3564.4-5.8%
2–4 Units31.432.43.2%
5+ Units (MF)251.2254.81.4%
Starts (NSA, thousands)
Category2024 YTD2025 YTD% Chg
Total806.8819.71.6%
1-Unit603.2577.6-4.2%
2–4 Units912.235.0%
5+ Units (MF)194.6229.818.1%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Units Under Construction

Top 50 Markets

Source: Costar; Yardi-Matrix; RCA

METHODOLOGY

Alex Blagojevich

Alex Blagojevich

Executive Managing Director / Co-Founder

alex.blagojevich@mmgrea.com

Michael-Sullivan

Michael Sullivan

Executive Managing Director / Co-Founder

michael.sullivan@mmgrea.com

Brett

Brett Meinzer

Managing Director

brett.meinzer@mmgrea.com

Kyle Shoemaker

Kyle Shoemaker

Managing Director

kyle.shoemaker@mmgrea.com

Simon Turner

Simon Turner

Senior Director

simon.turner@mmgrea.com

Bill Brading

Bill Brading

Senior Director

bill.brading@mmgrea.com

Thomas

Thomas Skevington

Senior Advisor

thomas.skevington@mmgrea.com

Jake Sullivan_2023

Jake Sullivan

Senior Advisor

jake.sullivan@mmgrea.com

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Construction Pipeline Report Methodology

Market Snapshot

Existing Units:  An estimate of the number of units in properties with 50 or more units.

Total Units Under Construction Or In Lease Up: Units being built or pre-leased as of February 2024, for projects with 50+ units.

Units Delivering in Next 4Q: Units expected to complete by the end of Q1 2025.

Share Of Existing Inventory UC: Percentage of units under construction relative to existing stock.

Construction Pipeline Status

Prospective: Early-stage project concepts.

Planned: Projects with approved conceptual plans by planning/zoning authorities.

Under Construction: Actively developed properties.

UC/Lease-Up: Properties under development and pre-leasing.

Rental Category

Discretionary: Resort-quality properties targeting high-income renters or those choosing to rent over owning.

High Mid-Range: Appeals to dual-income households with incomes similar to those in the discretionary category.

Low Mid-Range: Targets working professionals in “gray collar” jobs (e.g., police, firefighters, teachers, technicians).

Workforce: Aimed at blue-collar workers with lower incomes.

Pipeline Map & Data Table

Data sourced from Yardi Matrix. While accuracy is prioritized, the exactness of data cannot be guaranteed.

Construction Pipeline Map

The information provided in this construction pipeline map is obtained from Yardi Matrix. While every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in the map is as accurate as possible, MMG REA does not warrant, endorse, or guarantee the completeness, accuracy, or reliability of the information.

Users of the map should be aware that the data related to properties, including but not limited to locations, statuses, and details, may be subject to change without notice. MMG REA shall not be liable for any errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in the information or for any user’s reliance on the information. Users are encouraged to validate the information with other sources in the field to confirm any details or obtain further information.

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