Louisville 1Q 2024 Market Report

MARKET SNAPSHOT

AVERAGE RENT

$1,162 1Q 2024

1Q 2024 RENT CHANGE

3.9%

OCCUPANCY RATE

94.7% 1Q 2024

ANNUAL OCCUPANCY CHANGE

40 BASIS POINTS

TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSE ANNUAL CHANGE

6.4% (FEB 2024)

NET OPERATING INCOME ANNUAL CHANGE

9.4% (FEB 2024)

* Please note that these employment figures have been adjusted for seasonal variations and are based on Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.

** Please note that these unemployment rates are estimates that have not been adjusted for seasonal variations, and they are derived from Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Robust Rent Growth: Louisville’s average rent growth hovers just below 4.0%, compared to the national rate of 0.9%. The metro’s affordability, steady population growth, and limited new supply have resulted in a more moderate slowdown compared to peer markets.

 

  • New Development in Southern Indiana: Most new supply is concentrated in the Southern Indiana submarket, where inventory has grown 28% over five years, versus a 17% market-level increase.

 

  • Demand Outperforms: Demand in Louisville has matched recent supply, stabilizing the market as of early 2024. Net absorption over the past 12 months totaled 2,500 units, 28% above the three-year pre-pandemic average.

Supply & Demand

1Q 2024

915 Units

QUARTERLY DEMAND

1,304 Units

QUARTERLY COMPLETIONS

Annual Demand vs Completions

Demand Trends

In contrast to national trends, demand in Louisville has matched supply in recent months, leaving the market on firm ground as of early 2024. Over the past 12 months, net absorption has reached 2,500 units—28% above the average for the same period in the three years preceding the pandemic. As of the first quarter, the average occupancy rate stands at 94.7%, surpassing the national benchmark of 92.2%. Louisville’s affordability bolsters demand, especially for mid- and lower-tier properties, where renters are most affected by rising costs. While net absorption for lower-tier properties is negative nationally, it remains positive in Louisville.

Construction Trends

In Louisville, new deliveries have reached near-record levels, with 2,700 units added to the market in the past 12 months. The majority of this new supply is concentrated in the Southern Indiana submarket, where inventory has expanded by 28% over the past five years, compared to a 17% increase at the market level. Development in Louisville is focused on areas that have seen some of the highest apartment demand in recent years. Southern Jefferson County and Southern Indiana, which include some of the fastest-growing communities in the region, together account for nearly half of all units under construction. Downtown Louisville and the East End contribute another 27% of the units currently being built.

Occupancy & Rent Trends

OCCUPANCY TRENDS

Net absorption in Louisville accelerated through much of 2023 and kept pace with new deliveries, maintaining a balanced occupancy rate of 94.7% compared to the national benchmark of 92.7% at the close of the first quarter of 2024. Several factors are poised to sustain strong demand for rental units in Louisville. The concentration of higher education institutions provides market stability, as students and faculty drive consistent housing demand. Moreover, significant investments from companies like Toyota and other advanced manufacturers are generating new jobs, further boosting the need for housing as employees relocate to the region. Additionally, Louisville’s affordability appeals to prospective renters seeking a more economical alternative to markets with higher living costs.

$1,596

Average Monthly Mortgage Payment

RENT TRENDS

After slowing down in mid-2023, rent growth in Louisville has stabilized. While the national rent growth rate is 0.9%, Louisville’s gains are hovering around 4.0%. The market’s affordability, steady population growth, and relatively limited new supply over the past few years have contributed to a more gradual slowdown in rent growth compared to peer markets and the national average. In fact, rent growth in Louisville still surpasses the 10-year average of 3.4%. Submarkets with occupancy rates above the market average, like South Jefferson County, are experiencing particularly strong growth, with increases approaching 5%. Looking ahead, rent growth is expected to remain robust, with gains averaging over 3% annually for the next three years.

$1,162

Average Monthly Rent

Submarket Rent & Occupancy

Submarket Construction Pipeline

Sales Activity

As of early 2024, investment activity in Louisville remains subdued. In the past 12 months, sales volume reached just over $170 million across 10 deals, marking the lowest total for this period since 2016. However, comparing only the first quarter of 2024 to the same period a year earlier, transaction volume quadrupled to $26.4 million across three deals. Institutional and private REIT investor activity, which typically makes up a small portion of the market, was absent entirely over the last five quarters. Instead, the buyer profile has shifted exclusively to individual buyers. This change is reflected in the types of assets being traded, with smaller properties dominating many of the top deals in recent months.

TRANSACTION VOLUME


1Q 2024 Transaction Volume

Y-O-Y Change

Individual Transaction Count

Price Per Unit

Annual PPU Change

* Trailing 4Q average PPU

* Preliminary Data from RCA – Individual transaction $2.5M +

Income & Expense Analysis

Please note that the income and expense data presented in this section is sourced from third-party providers. Our firm does not provide any warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or reliability of this information. We recommend that users exercise their own discretion and professional judgment when interpreting and utilizing this data.

Income & Expenses

Income AssumptionsValue / UnitYear Change (%)
Rental Income / Occupied Unit$1,143.217.0%
Recoverable Expenses / Occupied Unit$80.9113.7%
Other Income / Occupied Unit$75.844.0%
Total Income / Occupied Unit$1,299.967.2%
Rental Income$1,065.877.7%
Recoverable Expenses$75.4414.5%
Other Income$70.714.8%
Total Income$1,212.027.9%
Operating ExpensesValue / UnitYear Change (%)
Payroll$126.836.7%
Repairs & Maintenance$45.559.3%
Leasing$56.866.1%
General$24.423.1%
Marketing & Advertising$18.3216.6%
Repairs & Maintenance$108.117.7%
Cleaning$18.0115.6%
Roads & Grounds$19.002.0%
General$71.097.7%
Administrative$34.1012.3%
Security$3.7332.9%
General$30.3710.1%
Management Fees$44.998.7%
Utilities$97.20-1.5%
Electric$17.68-5.6%
Gas$6.24-28.8%
Water/Sewer$73.282.4%
Real Estate & Other Taxes$119.62-3.1%
Insurance$50.1942.6%
Other Operating Expensees$0.65
Total Operating Expense$600.016.4%
Value / UnitYear Change (%)
Net Operating Income$468.249.2%

Market Outlook

In the coming years, rent growth in Louisville is projected to remain robust, with gains averaging between 3% and 4% annually, outpacing the national average. Several factors continue to underpin strong rental demand. The concentration of higher education institutions stabilizes the market by sustaining housing demand from students and faculty. Moreover, significant investments from companies like Toyota and other advanced manufacturers are bringing new jobs to the region, further fueling the need for housing as employees relocate. Additionally, Louisville’s affordability could draw prospective renters seeking more economical living compared to higher-cost markets.

Sources: Yardi Matrix; Costar; MSCI.

To Gain Further Insights Into The LOUISVILLE Market Please Reach Out To Our local Team

Alex Blagojevich

Alex Blagojevich

Executive Managing Director / Co-Founder
Michael-Sullivan

Michael Sullivan

Executive Managing Director / Co-Founder
Nate-Ulepich

Nate Ulepich

Director of Revenue Operations and National Team Coordinator
Brett

Brett Meinzer

Managing Director
David-Huey

David Huey

Senior Director
Kendall Adams

Kendall Adams

Senior Director
Headshot Corporate Business Portrait for MMG at Fontaine Hotel in Kansas City by Kevin Ashley Photography I Kansas City and Overland Park Headshot Photographer. Headshots, Portraits, Weddings and Commercial Photography.

Ryan Carter

Associate Advisor
Brett Sanchez-1

Brett Sanchez

Associate Advisor
Thomas

Thomas Skevington

Senior Advisor
Kyle

Kyle Winston

Senior Advisor
Chris Wilson_2023

Chris Wilson

Associate Advisor

We're proud to advise our clients about more than just their assets. Gain comprehensive insight into the multifamily industry with our exclusive, on demand access to actionable market intelligence.