$1,815 4Q 2023
$1,848 4Q 2024
1.8%
94.1% 4Q 2023
93.8% 4Q 2024
-30 points
1.59M 2023
1.60M 2024
3.1% 2023
3.3% 2024
* Please note that these employment figures have been adjusted for seasonal variations and are based on Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.
** Please note that these unemployment rates are estimates that have not been adjusted for seasonal variations, and they are derived from Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.
FORECASTED ABSORPTION
FORECASTED NEW SUPPLY
While Denver’s apartment market has seen a resurgence in demand, the substantial pipeline of new developments is exerting downward pressure on occupancy rates, which have dipped from a recent high of 95.1% in early 2022 to 94.1% by the end of 2023. This stabilization in demand follows a period of fluctuation, with absorption rates in the last three quarters of 2023 exceeding 2,000 units, aligning with the pre-2020 average. However, with new supply consistently outstripping demand since mid-2021, except for the second quarter of 2022, this ongoing imbalance is poised to constrain both rent growth and occupancy rates, especially in metro areas with a high ratio of scheduled deliveries to existing inventory.
Denver remains a national leader in construction activity, with approximately 28,000 apartment units currently underway, a slight decrease from the peak of over 37,000 units in early 2023. Despite the high level of construction activity, new project starts have significantly declined due to the increasing challenges developers face in securing financing. Downtown Denver, known for its dense supply, has about 7,200 units in progress, while the fashionable RiNo neighborhood continues to attract development due to its high rental rates. Developers are also focusing on emerging live/work/play areas along the RTD Light Rail network, particularly along the A Line that links Denver International Airport with Downtown. With around 12,300 units expected to be completed in the next year, the substantial pipeline, despite a slowdown in new starts, is likely to continue exerting pressure on Denver’s occupancy rates. However, the notable reduction in new apartment construction starts suggests that by 2025, the market could experience alleviation from supply-side pressures, potentially bolstering rent growth.
Average Monthly Mortgage Payment
Average Monthly Rent
In the Denver metro area, average rents have climbed to $1,815 per month, marking a modest 1.0% increase over the past year. The luxury market, in particular, has faced challenges, with its ability to raise rents diminished by competition from newly leased properties, leading to a significant slowdown in rent growth from double-digit increases to just 0.4% in the last quarter of 2023. High-end urban areas, traditionally leaders in rent growth, have seen a reversal, with Downtown Denver experiencing a 1.2% decrease in rent growth due to the concentration of new construction. In contrast, affordability has become a key factor for renters, with suburban areas like Northeast Adams County, where rents are lower and new construction is minimal, showing resilience and even an expected 4.0% rent increase by the end of 2024. Despite Denver’s active construction pipeline, overall rent growth in the city is forecasted to average 1.7% by the final quarter of 2024, reflecting the ongoing impact of supply pressures on the market.
| Submarket | Q4 2023 Stabilized Occupancy | Q4 2024 Stabilized Occupancy (f) | Annual Occupancy Change (2024/2023) | Q4 2023 Average Monthly Rent | Q4 2024 Average Monthly Rent (f) | Annual Rent Change (2024/2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 93.9% | 93.6% | -0.3% | $1,699 | $1,705 | 0.4% |
| Broomfield County | 94.3% | 94.0% | -0.3% | $1,876 | $1,911 | 1.9% |
| Downtown Denver | 93.3% | 93.0% | -0.3% | $1,922 | $1,957 | 1.8% |
| DTC/Southeast Corridor | 94.5% | 94.4% | -0.1% | $1,981 | $1,992 | 0.5% |
| East Denver | 94.2% | 94.0% | -0.2% | $1,791 | $1,832 | 2.3% |
| Englewood/Littleton | 94.3% | 94.1% | -0.2% | $1,630 | $1,687 | 3.5% |
| Glendale University Area | 94.1% | 93.8% | -0.4% | $1,571 | $1,608 | 2.4% |
| Highlands Ranch | 94.2% | 93.9% | -0.3% | $2,043 | $2,067 | 1.2% |
| Lakewood/West Corridor | 95.2% | 95.1% | -0.1% | $1,720 | $1,757 | 2.2% |
| North Jefferson County | 94.4% | 94.1% | -0.3% | $1,799 | $1,867 | 3.8% |
| Northeast Adams County | 94.3% | 93.9% | -0.4% | $1,694 | $1,761 | 4.0% |
| Northwest Adams County | 93.3% | 93.0% | -0.4% | $1,708 | $1,741 | 1.9% |
| Outlying Arapahoe County | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | $2,199 | $2,145 | -2.5% |
| South Adams County | 94.2% | 93.9% | -0.3% | $1,584 | $1,566 | -1.2% |
| South Douglas County | 94.6% | 94.3% | -0.3% | $1,934 | $1,980 | 2.4% |
| South Jefferson County | 95.3% | 95.0% | -0.2% | $1,960 | $1,970 | 0.5% |
| West Denver | 94.9% | 94.6% | -0.3% | $1,826 | $1,824 | -0.1% |
| Market | 94.1% | 93.8% | -0.3% | $1,815 | $1,848 | 1.8% |
4Q 2023 Unit Inventory
Number of Units Under Construction
Number of Units UC Delivering
In the Next 4 Quarters
| Submarket | Unit Inventory: 4Q 2023 | Units Under Construction | % of Existing Inventory UC | % of Total UC | Units UC Delivering In the Next 4 Quarters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 36,736 | 3,478 | 9% | 12% | 798 |
| Broomfield County | 9,759 | 2,016 | 21% | 7% | 1,124 |
| Downtown Denver | 57,811 | 7,272 | 13% | 26% | 1,602 |
| DTC/Southeast Corridor | 13,604 | 1,533 | 11% | 6% | 844 |
| East Denver | 20,674 | 1,999 | 10% | 7% | 1,176 |
| Englewood/Littleton | 12,966 | 1,654 | 13% | 6% | 541 |
| Glendale University Area | 23,669 | 338 | 1% | 1% | 102 |
| Highlands Ranch | 11,002 | 850 | 8% | 3% | 849 |
| Lakewood/West Corridor | 24,596 | 1,485 | 6% | 5% | 501 |
| North Jefferson County | 12,547 | 1,503 | 12% | 5% | 911 |
| Northeast Adams County | 8,055 | 529 | 7% | 2% | 528 |
| Northwest Adams County | 19,795 | 919 | 5% | 3% | 917 |
| Outlying Arapahoe County | 270 | 0 | 0% | 0% | 0 |
| South Adams County | 5,318 | 581 | 11% | 2% | 580 |
| South Douglas County | 12,547 | 622 | 5% | 2% | 335 |
| South Jefferson County | 4,902 | 479 | 10% | 2% | 279 |
| West Denver | 19,105 | 2,584 | 14% | 9% | 1,207 |
| Market | 293,356 | 27,842 | 9% | 100% | 12,294 |
The year 2023 ended on a muted note for the sales of conventional multifamily assets, according to preliminary data from MSCI. Despite the typical last-minute flurry of sales and the subsequent time required for data consolidation, it seems unlikely that any late surge would significantly shift the overall trend observed throughout the year. The fourth quarter witnessed $782.4 million in sales, an improvement over the previous year yet the lowest for a fourth quarter since 2014, excluding 2022. Consequently, the annual transaction volume settled at $2.11 billion from 67 individual asset sales, marking a 36% reduction from the year before and the smallest annual total in more than a decade. Looking forward to 2024, the market could offer promising prospects for astute investors if interest rates find stability or decline, leveraging Denver’s ongoing appeal as a premier destination for multifamily investments, especially with the potential for more competitively priced deals to surface.
* Trailing 4Q average PPU
* Preliminary Data from RCA – Individual transaction $2.5M +
P=Preliminary
| Sector | Employment Change 2023 to 2024 | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Employment | 7,600 | 0.4% |
| Manufacturing | 0 | 0.0% |
| Construction | (800) | -0.9% |
| Trade, Transport., & Utilities | 400 | 0.1% |
| Information | 300 | 0.6% |
| Financial Activities | (700) | -0.6% |
| Professional & Business Services | (1,900) | -0.6% |
| Education & Health Services | 2,700 | 1.4% |
| Government | 4,600 | 2.1% |
| Lesuire & Hospitality | 1,100 | 0.6% |
| Natural Resources & Mining | 2,200 | 24.2% |
| Other Services | (300) | -0.4% |
Denver’s economic landscape for 2024 is anticipated to be nuanced, with the metro likely to avert a recession and witness ongoing, albeit modest, job growth at a rate of 0.4%. The employment scene is expected to be buoyed by strong performances in sectors like education and health services, natural resources, and government. However, these positive trends may be partially counterbalanced by anticipated declines in the financial services and professional and business services sectors. The overall economic narrative for Denver in 2024 is one of cautious expansion, underpinned by high-income generating key sectors, yet tempered by the labor market’s sensitivity to the sustained period of elevated interest rates.
