Chicago 2024 Market Forecast



$1,685 4Q 2023

$1,751 4Q 2024




95.1% 4Q 2023

94.9% 4Q 2024




4.77M 2023

4.79M 2024


4.2% 2023

4.5% 2024

* Please note that these employment figures have been adjusted for seasonal variations and are based on Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.

** Please note that these unemployment rates are estimates that have not been adjusted for seasonal variations, and they are derived from Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.


  • Chicago’s multifamily market has been impressively resilient, with occupancy checking in at 95.1% at the close of 2023.

  • Contrary to the majority of other major markets, Chicago’s multifamily market maintains a stable construction pipeline with only a 2.0% share of existing inventory currently under construction.

  • Rent growth in Chicago is expected to be robust in 2024, with both urban and suburban areas forecasted to see increases between 3.2% and 4.5% across all submarkets by year end, indicating a healthy and balanced market.

  • Chicago’s multifamily market proved resilient in 2023 despite economic uncertainties, recording $2.8 billion in investment activity and outperforming other property types in the metro by a significant margin, highlighting its appeal and protective nature for commercial real estate investors.

Supply & Demand


5,948 Units


6,988 Units


Annual Demand vs Completions

Demand / Occupancy Outlook

One of the key positive aspects of Chicago’s multifamily market is how well occupancy is holding up. Over the past year, the city has seen an absorption of approximately 8,000 units, significantly exceeding its long-term net absorption average of 4,500 units. This performance is particularly commendable given the surge in development in recent years. The current occupancy rate stands at 95.1%, which aligns with the metro’s average and is impressive, especially in the context of the national average and the recent influx of new developments. The strongest submarkets in Chicago, Downtown and North Lakefront, have been pivotal in driving this growth. Combined, these areas account for nearly half of the metropolitan area’s year-over-year absorption gains, showcasing their dominance in the market.

New Supply Outlook

Unlike other major multifamily markets such as Dallas, Phoenix, and Miami, Chicago has exhibited a more stable pattern of new supply expansion over the past five years. As a prominent gateway market, Chicago simultaneously presents characteristics typical of traditional Midwest apartment markets, a combination that sets it apart in the national context. One key factor contributing to this stability is Chicago’s current construction pipeline, which represents only 2.0% of its existing inventory. This relatively modest pipeline is largely a result of the city’s lengthy development approval processes. Such regulatory environments have effectively tempered supply spikes in Chicago, allowing demand to keep pace with and efficiently absorb new units, a dynamic not always observed in markets with more aggressive construction activities.

Looking ahead, the forecast for the next four quarters indicates a continuation of this trend. Approximately 7,000 units are expected to be added, which is consistent with the historical average for the region. The concentration of construction activity is notable in Downtown Chicago, which accounts for 36% of the entire market-wide pipeline. This focus on Downtown underscores its importance as a key area of development. Additionally, there is significant construction activity near mass transit stations in suburban areas, including East Suburban McHenry, North Lakefront, North DuPage County, and Northwest Chicago. These submarkets collectively are expected to contribute to half of all upcoming completions in the next 12 months.

Occupancy & Rent Trends



Average Monthly Mortgage Payment


Average Monthly Rent

2024 Rent trends outlook

In the past year, Chicago’s multifamily market has seen varied rent growth across its 42 submarkets. Regions with limited construction, like Kendall County, achieved a 6.6% rent increase. Conversely, urban submarkets collectively grew by only 1.8%, with Downtown Chicago holding a significant portion of the multifamily supply, recording a mere 0.4% increase due to a surplus of high-grade units.

Looking ahead to 2024, rent growth in Chicago is anticipated to be led by neighborhoods and cities with minimal new development. Aurora, for example, with scant development in the pipeline, is projected to see a notable 4.4% rent growth by the year’s end. Last year, the dense urban submarkets of Chicago experienced only modest growth, but a more balanced influx of new deliveries is expected to boost rent growth in these areas. Downtown Chicago, for instance, is forecasted to achieve a 3.8% rent increase by year-end, while the North Lakefront submarket, including Lincoln Park, is poised for a 4.0% annual growth. Overall, the Chicago apartment market is set to witness a 3.9% increase in rents by the end of 2024, with all submarkets expecting positive growth in the range of 3.2% to 4.5%. This uniform growth across both urban and suburban areas underlines the stability of Chicago’s multifamily market.

Submarket Rent & Occupancy

SubmarketQ4 2023 Stabilized OccupancyQ4 2024 Stabilized Occupancy (f)Annual Occupancy Change (2024/2023)Q4 2023 Average Monthly RentQ4 2024 Average Monthly Rent (f)Annual Rent Change (2024/2023)
South Will County94.0%93.7%-0.3%$1,033$1,0804.5%
Southwest Lake County96.5%96.4%-0.1%$1,893$1,9754.3%
Northeast DuPage County94.9%94.8%-0.2%$1,847$1,9264.2%
DeKalb County97.1%96.9%-0.2%$732$7634.2%
Near North Suburban Cook96.2%96.0%-0.2%$1,725$1,7984.2%
Far Northwest Suburban Cook95.5%95.4%-0.2%$1,653$1,7224.2%
Southwest Chicago93.5%93.1%-0.4%$1,032$1,0754.2%
West Cook96.1%95.9%-0.2%$1,339$1,3944.2%
Glen Ellyn to West Chicago Corridor96.3%96.1%-0.1%$1,631$1,6984.2%
Porter County97.1%96.9%-0.2%$1,213$1,2634.1%
Southeast DuPage County95.4%95.3%-0.2%$1,655$1,7244.1%
Grundy County98.0%97.9%-0.2%$1,061$1,1054.1%
Far North Chicago95.5%95.2%-0.3%$1,219$1,2694.1%
South Lakefront93.5%93.2%-0.3%$1,296$1,3494.1%
Western McHenry County96.7%96.5%-0.2%$1,133$1,1794.1%
Far North Suburban Cook94.3%94.1%-0.2%$2,314$2,4084.0%
North DuPage County96.9%96.8%-0.1%$1,607$1,6714.0%
North Lake County IN93.7%93.4%-0.3%$1,131$1,1764.0%
Southeast Lake County94.4%94.2%-0.2%$2,322$2,4144.0%
Northwest Chicago95.4%95.2%-0.3%$1,249$1,2994.0%
North Lakefront95.2%95.0%-0.2%$1,886$1,9614.0%
Southern Cook County95.0%94.7%-0.3%$1,112$1,1563.9%
Northwest Lake County96.2%96.0%-0.2%$1,370$1,4233.9%
Des Plaines/Arlington Hts Corridor95.5%95.4%-0.2%$1,728$1,7963.9%
North Will County96.1%96.0%-0.2%$1,641$1,7053.9%
Northeast Lake County96.6%96.4%-0.2%$1,216$1,2633.8%
Southwest Cook County95.6%95.4%-0.3%$1,342$1,3933.8%
Fox River Valley94.4%94.2%-0.2%$1,837$1,9073.8%
Downtown Chicago94.0%93.9%-0.1%$2,646$2,7463.8%
University Park93.0%92.7%-0.3%$1,217$1,2623.7%
East Suburban McHenry98.3%98.2%-0.1%$1,486$1,5413.7%
South Lake County IN92.7%92.4%-0.4%$1,247$1,2933.6%
Western Kane County98.4%98.3%-0.1%$2,201$2,2813.6%
Kendall County96.7%96.2%-0.5%$1,904$1,9723.6%
South Chicago94.7%94.5%-0.3%$1,125$1,1613.2%

Submarket Construction Pipeline


3Q 2023 Unit Inventory


Number of Units Under Construction


Number of Units UC Delivering
In the Next 4 Quarters

SubmarketUnit Inventory: 4Q 2023Units Under Construction% of Existing Inventory UC% of Total UCUnits UC Delivering In the Next 4 Quarters
Downtown Chicago58,9244,0537%36.3%853
North Lakefront90,32800%0.0%716
East Suburban McHenry3,49463918%5.7%638
Northwest Chicago23,9338734%7.8%620
North DuPage County7,2156138%5.5%611
Kendall County2,99565522%5.9%551
Northeast DuPage County13,6965484%4.9%544
North Will County10,8757287%6.5%293
Far Northwest Suburban Cook19,3652962%2.6%291
South Lake County IN6,5045458%4.9%273
Southwest Chicago27,6142201%2.0%186
Des Plaines/Arlington Hts Corridor19,8732671%2.4%174
Southwest Cook County13,7671761%1.6%173
West Cook25,6851581%1.4%152
Northeast Lake County11,9251391%1.2%136
South Lakefront44,571580%0.5%128
Far North Chicago34,384890%0.8%81
Porter County7,188280%0.3%26
Glen Ellyn to West Chicago Corridor10,1031041%0.9%15
DeKalb County15100%0.0%0
Far North Suburban Cook3,29100%0.0%0
Fox River Valley4,15600%0.0%0
Grundy County66800%0.0%0
Near North Suburban Cook7,77000%0.0%0
North Lake County IN10,00400%0.0%0
Northwest Lake County3,79000%0.0%0
South Chicago3,23000%0.0%0
South Will County55000%0.0%0
Southeast DuPage County7,437220%0.2%0
Southeast Lake County3,46900%0.0%0
Southern Cook County10,91300%0.0%0
Southwest Lake County5,1612956%2.6%0
University Park1,85800%0.0%0
Western Kane County36900%0.0%0
Western McHenry County2,44900%0.0%0

Sales Activity

In 2023, the Chicago multifamily market recorded $2.8 billion in investment activity through 131 transactions, a 19% decline from the previous year. Although a decrease in transaction activity isn’t typically positive, this 19% drop was relatively modest compared to broader trends in 2023. For context, transaction activity in the U.S. multifamily sector fell by approximately 65% over the same period. When compared to other property types within the Chicago metro area, residential investment fared the best. Between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, office sales in Chicago plummeted by 72%, retail investments declined by 49%, and industrial sales decreased by 61%.

This performance suggests that, despite prevailing market uncertainties and significant bid-ask spread challenges, Chicago’s multifamily market inherently offers some degree of protection for commercial real estate (CRE) investors. Factors contributing to this resilience include Chicago’s status as a major gateway market, its relative affordability, and its position as the third-largest city in the United States. These characteristics seem to provide a buffer for the multifamily sector, maintaining its appeal to investors even in a fluctuating economic landscape.

  • FPA Multifamily
  • Tishman Speyer
  • Waterton Associates
  • JVM Realty Corp
  • Pontegadea
  • Wood Partners
  • Ares Management
  • Fifield Realty Corp
  • F&F Realty Ltd
  • The Connor Group


2023 Transaction Volume

Y-O-Y Change

Individual Transaction Count
Down 34% Y-O-Y

Price Per Unit

Annual PPU Price Change

* Trailing 4Q average PPU

* Preliminary Data from RCA – Individual transaction $2.5M +

P = Preliminary

Employment Forecast

Forecasted 2024 Employment Sector Growth

SectorEmployment Change 2023 to 2024Percent Change
Overall Employment17,8000.4%
Trade, Transport., & Utilities1,2000.1%
Financial Activities1,5000.5%
Professional & Business Services(2,300)-0.3%
Education & Health Services12,1001.6%
Leisure & Hospitality3,3000.7%
Natural Resources & Mining20012.5%
Other Services(300)-0.2%

Economic Outlook

The outlook for Chicago’s apartment market in the upcoming year is one of stabilization, underpinned by robust job growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics anticipates the creation of 17,800 new jobs in 2024, a development that is expected to boost household formation and sustain the demand for housing in the area. As the impact of the pandemic recedes and a greater number of workers transition back to office environments, downtown residential sectors are likely to see a significant uptick in demand and activity. This resurgence will not be limited to the central areas but is also expected to spread to the surrounding neighborhoods.

In addition to the general economic recovery, specific large-scale investments are set to further enhance Chicago’s economic landscape. Notable among these is Loop Capital Real Estate Partners’ ambitious project—a $100 million film studio in South Cook County. Similarly, The Chan Zuckerberg Initiative’s investment of $250 million in a biotech hub is poised to generate thousands of new jobs. These significant injections of capital and the subsequent job creation are promising for the apartment market in Chicago. They indicate a strengthening of the city’s economic foundation, which in turn is likely to have a positive ripple effect on the housing demand, particularly in the apartment sector. This confluence of job growth and strategic investments points towards a period of growth and stability for the Chicago apartment market in the near future.

Sources: Costar; Yardi Matrix; BLS; MSCI; Moody’s Analytics

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