$1,533 4Q 2023
$1,564 4Q 2024
2.0%
92.2% 4Q 2023
91.9% 4Q 2024
-30 points
1.35M 2023
1.37M 2024
3.2% 2023
3.7% 2024
* Please note that these employment figures have been adjusted for seasonal variations and are based on Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.
** Please note that these unemployment rates are estimates that have not been adjusted for seasonal variations, and they are derived from Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.
FORECASTED ABSORPTION
FORECASTED NEW SUPPLY
In 2024, Charlotte’s multifamily market is expected to see a surge in demand, with absorption nearly doubling to 14,028 units, despite the introduction of 16,827 new units potentially nudging the occupancy rate down slightly from 92.2% to 91.9%. The strong demand, especially in areas like West, North, University, and East Charlotte, driven by in-migration from pricier cities like New York, continues to underpin the market’s robustness, even amidst a slight oversupply.
Charlotte’s multifamily real estate sector has seen remarkable growth in recent years, largely driven by significant in-migration to the area. The market stands out with one of the fastest-growing construction pipelines in the nation relative to its existing inventory. Last year alone, the completion of an impressive 13,166 new units was recorded. Looking ahead, the forecast suggests an influx of nearly 17,000 units over the next four quarters, which will easily set a record for annual deliveries in Charlotte. The bulk of construction activity is concentrated in key submarkets: South End, West Charlotte, and North Charlotte, which together represent over half of the metro-wide construction pipeline at 53%.
Average Monthly Mortgage Payment
Average Monthly Rent
The influx of new supply last year led to heightened competition, resulting in a significant downturn in the latter months. By the final quarter, the year-over-year rental growth rate had fallen to -2.5%, with average rents dipping to $1,533. As we look towards 2024, there is optimism for a rebound in rent growth, with forecasts suggesting a 2.0% increase year-over-year. Particularly in high-demand areas like Uptown Charlotte, a more substantial growth rate of 2.8% is expected, and even more affordable regions, such as Chester County, are projected to see positive movements. Nevertheless, the anticipated continual influx of new supply is expected to temper the pace of rent growth throughout the year.
| Submarket | Q4 2023 Stabilized Occupancy | Q4 2024 Stabilized Occupancy (f) | Annual Occupancy Change (2024/2023) | Q4 2023 Average Monthly Rent | Q4 2024 Average Monthly Rent (f) | Annual Rent Change (2024/2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cabarrus County | 92.7% | 92.4% | -0.3% | $1,445 | $1,483 | 2.6% |
| Chester County | 93.8% | 93.4% | -0.4% | $466 | $479 | 2.8% |
| East Charlotte | 93.0% | 92.7% | -0.3% | $1,408 | $1,436 | 1.9% |
| Gaston County | 93.7% | 93.5% | -0.3% | $1,344 | $1,373 | 2.2% |
| Huntersville/Cornelius | 94.0% | 93.8% | -0.2% | $1,594 | $1,624 | 1.9% |
| Iredell County | 91.7% | 91.3% | -0.4% | $1,480 | $1,515 | 2.4% |
| Lancaster County | 92.8% | 92.5% | -0.3% | $1,477 | $1,517 | 2.7% |
| Lincoln County | 91.0% | 90.6% | -0.5% | $1,314 | $1,345 | 2.4% |
| LoSo | 95.2% | 95.0% | -0.2% | $1,606 | $1,624 | 1.1% |
| North Charlotte | 92.5% | 92.2% | -0.3% | $1,460 | $1,484 | 1.6% |
| Rowan County | 91.9% | 91.5% | -0.5% | $1,238 | $1,256 | 1.5% |
| South Charlotte | 91.5% | 91.2% | -0.4% | $1,523 | $1,554 | 2.0% |
| South End | 93.8% | 93.6% | -0.2% | $2,017 | $2,045 | 1.4% |
| South Park | 89.5% | 89.2% | -0.4% | $1,845 | $1,883 | 2.1% |
| Union County | 92.9% | 92.9% | 0.0% | $1,542 | $1,571 | 1.9% |
| University | 91.0% | 90.6% | -0.4% | $1,468 | $1,498 | 2.0% |
| Uptown Charlotte | 91.9% | 91.7% | -0.3% | $1,995 | $2,050 | 2.8% |
| West Charlotte | 92.8% | 92.5% | -0.3% | $1,432 | $1,457 | 1.7% |
| York County | 92.2% | 91.9% | -0.4% | $1,417 | $1,449 | 2.3% |
| Market | 92.2% | 91.9% | -0.3% | $1,533 | $1,564 | 2.0% |
4Q 2023 Unit Inventory
Number of Units Under Construction
Number of Units UC Delivering
In the Next 4 Quarters
| Submarket | Unit Inventory: 3Q 2023 | Units Under Construction | % of Existing Inventory UC | % of Total UC | Units UC Delivering In the Next 4 Quarters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cabarrus County | 11,206 | 299 | 3% | 2.3% | 294 |
| Chester County | 209 | 0 | 0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| East Charlotte | 26,074 | 1,673 | 6% | 12.9% | 1,574 |
| Gaston County | 11,166 | 498 | 4% | 3.8% | 493 |
| Huntersville/Cornelius | 7,051 | 966 | 14% | 7.4% | 566 |
| Iredell County | 9,581 | 1,200 | 13% | 9.2% | 737 |
| Lancaster County | 3,068 | 1,183 | 39% | 9.1% | 1,181 |
| Lincoln County | 1,677 | 0 | 0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| LoSo | 3,464 | 2,924 | 84% | 22.5% | 1,858 |
| North Charlotte | 15,528 | 4,995 | 32% | 38.4% | 2,017 |
| Rowan County | 2,050 | 480 | 23% | 3.7% | 239 |
| South Charlotte | 36,583 | 840 | 2% | 6.5% | 522 |
| South End | 11,277 | 6,292 | 56% | 48.3% | 1,862 |
| South Park | 12,156 | 488 | 4% | 3.7% | 244 |
| Union County | 4,250 | 760 | 18% | 5.8% | 757 |
| University | 21,796 | 2,889 | 13% | 22.2% | 1,267 |
| Uptown Charlotte | 8,148 | 105 | 1% | 0.8% | 101 |
| West Charlotte | 16,279 | 5,672 | 35% | 43.6% | 2,851 |
| York County | 14,657 | 509 | 3% | 3.9% | 257 |
| Market | 216,220 | 31,773 | 14.7% | 100.0% | 16,820 |
The multifamily investment landscape in Charlotte saw a marked deceleration in 2023, with investment sales totaling $1.5 billion, reflecting a stark 65% downturn from the year before. This downturn has set the stage for a period of subdued transaction volumes, influenced by prevailing financing uncertainties and the ongoing process of pricing discovery. Despite these immediate hurdles, the intrinsic allure of Charlotte’s multifamily market continues to hold strong. With an anticipated rebound in absorption rates and the completion of new high-end units on the horizon, investor interest is expected to reignite, fostering a resurgence in market activity.
* Trailing 4Q average PPU
* Preliminary Data from RCA – Individual transaction $2.5M +
P=Preliminary
| Sector | Employment Change 2023 to 2024 | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Employment | 15,100 | 1.1% |
| Manufacturing | (800) | -0.7% |
| Construction | (900) | -1.2% |
| Trade, Transport., & Utilities | 5,200 | 1.8% |
| Information | 100 | 0.8% |
| Financial Activities | 1,400 | 1.1% |
| Professional & Business Services | (1,000) | -0.4% |
| Education & Health Services | 4,000 | 2.7% |
| Government | 2,800 | 1.7% |
| Lesuire & Hospitality | 5,200 | 3.4% |
| Natural Resources & Mining | 0 | 0.0% |
| Other Services | (200) | -0.4% |
Our forecasts indicate a promising outlook for the Charlotte market, with an anticipated addition of 15,100 new jobs, marking a 1.1% expansion. This job growth has historically been paralleled by a steady stream of new residents, underscoring the region’s attractiveness. Notably, the Trade, Transport, & Utilities sector and the Leisure & Hospitality industry are poised to be significant contributors to this employment surge, with each sector expected to add 5,200 jobs.
While the healthcare sector remains the largest employer in Charlotte, the financial services industry is a pivotal component of the local economy. The city hosts the headquarters of major financial institutions such as Bank of America and Truist, and other significant players like Wells Fargo, Ally, and U.S. Bank also have substantial employment footprints in the area. Beyond these sectors, Charlotte is set to gain from federal investments aimed at bolstering electric vehicle, solar, and semiconductor manufacturing industries, further diversifying its economic base.
The continuous influx of individuals from higher-cost areas in the Northeast further strengthens the Charlotte economy, contributing to its vibrancy and resilience. This trend reflects the city’s appeal as a burgeoning economic hub, offering a blend of job opportunities across various sectors.
