Billings 2Q23
Multifamily Market Report
$1,466
average rent
95.8%
average occupancy rate
3.4%
YoY rent change
-1.3 POINTS
yoy occupancy change
Supply & Demand
2Q23
-38 Units
QUARTERLY DEMAND
YTD: -93
0 Units
QUARTERLY COMPLETIONS
YTD: 0
Annual Demand vs Completions
-
Completions
-
Demand
Demand Trends
The second quarter of 2023 marked a return to negative absorption, following a brief period of positive absorption in the first quarter of the year. This comes after four consecutive quarters of negative absorption prior to Q1 2023.
With net absorption totaling -38 units in the second quarter, annual absorption shifted to -93 units for the year ending in Q2 2023.
Completion Trends
Multifamily development in the Billings market has been muted over the last year, with no new projects having been completed.
However, over the past three years, a total of 145 units have been delivered to the Billings, MT apartment market.
Demand Outlook
After a period of fluctuation, demand in the Billings, Montana market is showing encouraging signs of stabilization. With trends aligning closer to historical averages, there’s a renewed optimism for consistent growth moving forward.
The convergence towards the mean in the Billings market signifies a robust return to normalcy. This alignment with longstanding patterns provides a strong foundation for both investors and residents, reinforcing confidence in the market’s potential for sustainable growth.
New Supply Outlook
Despite the subdued deliveries in the Billings apartment market over the last year, developers are demonstrating renewed vigor with 4 active projects currently under construction, consisting of a total of 1,059 units.
The largest and most notable project currently under construction is Stock Land Properties’ 720-unit development located at 4100 Monad Road, which is set to deliver next spring.
Occupancy & Rent Trends
RENT VS OWN
MONTHLY PAYMENT
$1,466
Average Monthly Mortgage Payment
$2,592
Average Monthly Rent
Occupancy trends
Average apartment occupancy in Billings, MT has demonstrated a pattern marked by both growth and occasional retraction. Beginning in 1Q18 occupancy showed a steady increase throughout the year, reaching 95.9% with a noteworthy YOY change of 5.3%. Following this, average occupancy experienced minor fluctuations but remained relatively stable around the mid-95% range through 2019. A slight dip was then observed in early 2020, with the lowest point registering 94.7% in 2Q20. The latter part of 2020 marked a remarkable rebound, with occupancy surging to a high of 99.0% in 4Q20. This phase was followed by a period of gradual decline, which continued through to 4Q22, when occupancy stood at 96.1%. In the most recent quarters of 2023, the occupancy rate in Billings showed minor fluctuations, ending 2Q23 at 95.8%, with a YOY change of -1.3%.
RENTAL TRENDS
Rent trends in the Billings, MT apartment market have exhibited an interesting trajectory over recent years. Starting from 1Q18, there was an initial phase of slight decline with effective rents dipping to $910 by 2Q18. However, from 3Q18 onwards, the market began to demonstrate an upward momentum, gradually recovering and consistently growing through to 3Q22, when effective rent reached $1,473, reflecting a significant YOY Effective Rent Change of 13.8%. In the latter part of 2022, there was a minor contraction, with the effective rent dropping to $1,438 in 4Q22. However, the overall trend remained positive when observed on a year-over-year basis. The first quarter of 2023 showed a slight quarterly dip followed by an upturn, ending the second quarter at $1,466, showcasing a modest yet healthy year over year increase of 3.4%.
Sales Activity
Billings, Montana operates as a smaller, stable apartment market, characterized by limited transactions each year. This unique feature is compounded by Montana’s status as a nondisclosure state, meaning that the availability of pricing data is typically restricted. As a result, reported sale volume may not serve as a reliable indicator of overall market activity in the region. In a recent example that illustrates this context, the third quarter of 2023 saw the transaction of the 19-unit Tracy Lofts with a 4.8% vacancy rate at the time of the sale. Despite the nondisclosure nature of the market, it was known that the asking price for this property was $2.3 million.
Economy
In June 2023, the Billings, MT metro area’s labor market presented a mixed picture. Total nonfarm employment settled at 90,500 jobs, marking a 12-month percentage change of -0.4%. Among the private employment sectors, most maintained flat or positive annual growth, while the government sector recorded a decrease in payrolls of 2%, reducing the number of employees in this sector to 9,600. The education and health services sector was a standout performer, expanding payrolls by 2.5% year-over-year, which brought the number of employed residents in this sector to 16,200. This strong annual growth illustrates the importance and resilience of this sector in the Billings economy. In contrast, the trade and transportation sector held steady, with no recorded change in payrolls, standing at 21,000 jobs.
90.5K
June Payrolls
-0.4%
June 23 Employment growth
2.7%
June 23 Unemployment rate
3.4% us June rate
Top 5 Employment Sector Annual Change
Hover over icons to view data
| Sector | June 2023 Payrolls | Annual Percent Change |
|---|---|---|
| Education and Health Services | 16,200 | 2.5% |
| Leisure and Hospitality | 13,600 | 1.5% |
| Professional and Business Services | 10,100 | 1.0% |
| Trade, Transportation, and Utilities | 21,100 | 0.0% |
| Government | 9,600 | -2.0% |
Major Economic Developments
Coca-Cola Distribution & Manufacturing Center
$25M Capital Investment
100+ Jobs Created
S. Frontage Rd. & Harnish Blvd. Location
Now Open Operation
Billings Inner Belt Loop
$20M Capital Investment
250 Construction Jobs Created
6mi Extension
of Freeway Location
2024 Expected Completion
New Convention Center
$620M Annual Visitor Spending
in Billings, MT
22K Square Feet of Convention Space
Overland Avenue Location
2024 Expected Completion
Market Outlook
The Billings, MT apartment market is anticipated to exhibit steady performance over the next year. The stability observed in the local labor market, coupled with moderate growth in sectors like education and health services, may contribute to sustained demand for housing. While occupancy rates have demonstrated some fluctuations in the recent past, a balance between supply and demand is expected to maintain occupancy levels in the mid-90% range. Investors and operators can likely look forward to continued stability in rental pricing, with potential for modest growth. Overall, the Billings apartment market is expected to offer a stable environment, with opportunities driven by local economic factors and a watchful eye on both occupancy trends and broader economic indicators.
Sources: RealPage; BLS; Costar; Billings Chamber Of Commerce.
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