Austin 2Q23
Multifamily Market Report

$1,667

average rent

95.3%

average occupancy rate

$981.2M

ytd sales volume

-1.6%

YoY rent change

-2.7 POINTS

yoy occupancy change

22 YTD

individual transactions

Supply & Demand

2Q23

2,949 Units

QUARTERLY DEMAND
YTD: 4,758

3,671 Units

QUARTERLY COMPLETIONS
YTD: 6,941

Annual Demand vs Completions

2018
10,431
9,235
2019
9,738
9,011
2020
5,988
10,531
2021
19,918
11,678
2022
4,366
14,107
2023 YTD
4,758
6,931
  • Planned
    Completions
  • Pre-Planned
    Demand

Demand Trends

  • In the crucial spring leasing season of Q2 2023, the Austin apartment market experienced robust demand. The market recorded a notable net demand of 2,949 units, securing a commendable 7th position nationwide for net absorption.

  • Among Austin's 16 submarkets, 12 displayed positive absorption. The Round Rock/Georgetown submarket outshone the rest, thanks to its concentrated employment activity and housing development in the area.

Completion Trends

  • In Q2 2023, Austin's apartment inventory increased by 3,671 units, reaching a total of 6,931 units for the first half of 2023, which represents 32% of the anticipated units to be added this year.

  • The Round Rock/Georgetown and East Austin submarkets have been the primary contributors to the increase, accounting for over 40% of the inventory growth in the past four quarters.

Demand Outlook

  • Strong economic and demographic factors will fuel demand but absorbing the projected 32,000 units set to be delivered in the next four quarters—a record high in 29 years—will be challenging, even for robust markets.

  • The surge in new completions is expected to temporarily soften Austin's apartment performance in the upcoming year. However, once operators navigate the task of filling the increased supply of units, the Austin market is projected to return to its characteristic strong performance.

New Supply Outlook

  • As of the end of the 2nd quarter of 2023, there were a total of 45,574 units under construction, with a significant portion scheduled to be completed in the next four quarters, tripling the five-year average.

  • The highest number of new apartment units will be delivered to the East Austin submarket, home of the new Tesla facility.

Occupancy & Rent Trends

RENT VS OWN
MONTHLY PAYMENT

$3,319

Average Monthly Mortgage Payment

$1,667

Average Monthly Rent

Occupancy trends

In the second quarter of 2023, the Austin rental market experienced some adjustments due to changing market conditions and an increase in inventory. The recorded occupancy rate was 93.5%, marking a 2.7-point annual decrease. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, occupancy fell by 20 basis points. However, it’s worth noting that not all areas followed this trend; four submarkets actually showed improved occupancy rates compared to the previous quarter. The Round Rock/Georgetown submarket performance remains particularly impressive. In this location, occupancy experienced a quarter-over-quarter increase of 60 basis points, rising to 93.8%. Notably, Class A units within this submarket exhibited considerable strength, boasting an impressive occupancy rate of 99.0%.

RENTAL TRENDS

In the second quarter of the year, Austin’s rental market experienced a slowdown in rent growth, with an annual rental change of -1.6% and an average rental rate of $1,667. Despite the overall normalization across the metro area, submarket performance in Austin varied particularly among asset class. The Round Rock/Georgetown submarket witnessed strong rent growth for Class A properties, with an impressive 13.7% annual increase in rents in Q2 2023. On the other hand, rent performance in the Downtown/University submarket was bolstered by demand for Class B properties with annual rent growth at 9.3%, and average monthly rents as high as $2,711 in the submarket.

Submarket Rent & Occupancy

SubmarketAverage OccupancyAnnual Occupancy ChangeAverage Monthly RentAnnual Rent Change
Arboretum93.7%-2.0%$1,533-3.3%
Cedar Park93.7%-2.5%$1,650-4.3%
Downtown/University93.2%-2.7%$2,711-4.4%
East Austin92.3%-3.7%$1,779-0.2%
Far South Austin93.5%-2.5%$1,564-2.1%
Far West Austin93.6%-2.3%$1,668-3.2%
Near North Austin93.8%-1.8%$1,672-0.1%
North Central Austin93.9%-2.4%$1,5481.5%
Northwest Austin93.1%-2.6%$1,601-4.9%
Pflugerville/Wells Branch94.0%-2.6%$1,535-2.5%
Riverside92.7%-3.9%$1,5801.0%
Round Rock/Georgetown93.8%-2.5%$1,591-0.7%
San Marcos93.3%-3.0%$1,4071.1%
South Austin94.0%-1.9%$2,012-0.8%
Southeast Austin93.2%-4.1%$1,518-1.3%
Southwest Austin94.0%-2.1%$1,832-3.1%
Austin-Round Rock, TX93.5%-2.7%$1,667-1.6%

Units by Submarket Delivering in 2023

45,574

Units Under Construction

32,110

Units UC Delivering In the Next 4 Quarters

Percentage of Units Under Construction

Arboretum - 921
0%
Cedar Park - 4,733
0%
Downtown/University - 3,452
0%
East Austin - 7,806
0%
Far South Austin - 2,776
0%
Far West Austin - 895
0%
Near North Austin - 1,407
0%
North Central Austin - 5,859
0%
Northwest Austin - 473
0%
Pflugerville/Wells Branch - 2,440
0%
Riverside - 1,343
0%
Round Rock/Georgetown - 6,527
0%
San Marcos - 2,979
0%
South Austin - 616
0%
Southeast Austin - 2,387
0%
Southwest Austin - 960
0%

Percentage of Units Delivering Next 4Q

Arboretum - 771
0%
Cedar Park - 3,323
0%
Downtown/University - 1,313
0%
East Austin - 5,890
0%
Far South Austin - 1,981
0%
Far West Austin - 334
0%
Near North Austin - 1,000
0%
North Central Austin - 4,205
0%
Northwest Austin - 473
0%
Pflugerville/Wells Branch - 1,690
0%
Riverside - 1,268
0%
Round Rock/Georgetown - 4,851
0%
San Marcos - 2,179
0%
South Austin - 616
0%
Southeast Austin - 1,406
0%
Southwest Austin - 810
0%

Sales Activity

According to preliminary data from Real Capital Analytics, individual conventional multifamily transactions in Austin, TX, reached approximately $981.2 million in the first half of 2023, marking a 55.2% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year. This decline was accompanied by a 63% decrease in the number of properties involved in trades, with 22 properties changing hands, reflecting a cautious investment climate due to stringent financial conditions. Despite this, Austin’s average price per unit experienced a yearly increase of 2.6%, reaching $277,600. Institutional buyers have been the main drivers of acquisitions thus far, while international buyers, despite volatile conditions, have shown heightened interest, accounting for 10.2% of the buyer composition in the Austin market (vs a five-year average of 3.2%) and based on preliminary numbers for the first half of 2023, Austin is experiencing its highest cross-border net acquisition in nine years.

  1. Belveron RE Partners
  2. Bell Partners
  3. Terracap Mgmt Corp
  4. Tides Equities
  5. Sterling Equities
  1. Endeavor RE Group
  2. Thompson Realty
  3. Carlyle Group
  4. Slate Real Estate Partners
  5. MetLife

TRANSACTION VOLUME


YTD Transaction Volume

Y-O-Y Change

Individual Transaction Count

Price Per Unit

Annual Price Change

* Trailing 4Q average PPU

* Preliminary Data from RCA – Individual transaction $2.5M +

Economy

In May 2023, the job market in the Austin Metro area showed exemplary robustness, with the addition of 50,800 new positions, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The job growth rate of 4.0% was almost double the rate reported in March. Various sectors in the region experienced significant job gains, particularly the professional and business services sector, which added 14,600 new jobs, representing a growth rate of 5.4%. Notably, the leisure and hospitality sector remained the fastest-growing sector in the market, expanding by 8.7%, amounting to 11,900 new jobs. In terms of unemployment, Austin’s rate stood at a low 3.5% in May, close to the national average of 3.4%. These statistics highlight Austin’s strong economic performance, characterized by growth across multiple job sectors and average wages surpassing the national average.

50.8k

May Annual Jobs Created

4.0%

May 23 Employment growth

3.5%

May 23 Unemployment rate
3.4% us may rate

Top 5 Employment Sector Annual Change

<br>Professional & Business Services

Change from May 2022
to May 2023: 14,600

 

Percent Change: 5.4%

<br>Leisure & Hospitality

Change from May 2022
to May 2023: 11,900

 

Percent Change: 8.7%

<br>TRade, Transportation & Utilities

Change from May 2022
to May 2023: 5,900

 

Percent Change: 2.9%

<br>Education & Health Services

Change from May 2022
to May 2023: 3,600

 

Percent Change: 2.5%

<br>Mining, Logging & Constr.

Change from May 2022
to May 2023: 3,400

 

Percent Change: 4.3%

Hover over circles to view data
SectorChange from May 2022 to May 2023 Percent Change
Professional and business services14,600 5.4%
Leisure and hospitality11,900 8.7%
Trade, transportation, and utilities5,900 2.9%
Education and health services3,600 2.5%
Mining, logging, and construction3,400 4.3%
Government3,300 1.8%
Manufacturing3,200 4.6%
Other services2,900 6.0%
Information1,200 2.3%
Financial activities800 1.0%

Major Economic Developments

Tesla to Invest $717M in Austin Gigafactory

10,000+ Jobs to be created

$717M Project investment

1.4M SF Expansion of existing facility

4 New Buildings to be added

Spring 2025 Operational

apple logo on glass window

Phase II Construction Continues on Apple's 1B Campus

$1B Total campus investment

15,000 Total employees at full operation

Northwest
Austin
Location

133-acre
campus
Total size

photo of outer space

Acconia Energy Planning $85M Plant

$85M Project investment

60 Estimate jobs created

20-acre Site plan

Caldwell
County
Location

2025 Completion Date

Market Outlook

Despite a general deceleration nationwide, Austin remains economically robust, with a thriving job market and steady growth. By the end of the second quarter in 2023, there were over 45,574 housing units under construction, and an estimated 32,110 of those units are expected to be completed within the next four quarters. This surge in housing supply may present some challenges to the market. However, there is little need for concern, as nearly every submarket is expected to see an influx in housing supply over the next year, with the East Austin area taking the lead with approximately 5,890 units. While market dynamics may undergo fluctuations, the impact on rent growth and occupancy rates is anticipated to be temporary. As we enter the second quarter, the strong economic conditions and demographic factors driving demand suggest a positive long-term outlook for Austin, despite these immediate challenges.

Sources: RealPage; BLS; MSCI; Austin Business Journal; Austin Chamber.

To Gain Further Insights Into The Austin Market Please Reach Out To Our local Team

Michael Moffit

Managing Director

Image of Mike Watson

Mike Watson

Managing Director

Image of Richard Mireles

Richard Mireles

Senior Director

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Alex Thompson

Associate Advisor