$1,577 4Q 2023
$1,603 4Q 2024
1.6%
90.5% 4Q 2023
90.2% 4Q 2024
-30 BASIS POINTS
1.30M 2023
1.31M 2024
3.4% 2023
4.0% 2024
* Please note that these employment figures have been adjusted for seasonal variations and are based on Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.
** Please note that these unemployment rates are estimates that have not been adjusted for seasonal variations, and they are derived from Moody’s Analytics forecast as of January 1, 2024.
FORECASTED ABSORPTION
FORECASTED NEW SUPPLY
After a period of negative absorption in 2022, the Atlanta multifamily market began its recovery in spring 2023, a trend that persisted through the end of the year. This resurgence in demand, however, has been tempered by a substantial influx of new supply, leading to a continued increase in vacancies.
The long-term prospects for Atlanta’s multifamily market are still bright. Atlanta is widely recognized as one of the leading U.S. markets for net domestic migration and population growth, both key drivers of apartment demand. The region has seen significant population growth, adding over 900,000 residents since 2010. This demographic shift, coupled with ongoing household growth and net migration, is expected to bolster the demand for multifamily housing in Atlanta, contributing to a recovering market in 2024.
With about 13,800 units projected to be absorbed this year, demand is set to more than double the 2023 total of 5,600 units and surpass any annual total recorded between 2014 and 2019. Although net absorption is forecasted to rebound, it may not fully offset the 14,800 units expected to come online, with the anticipated shortfall being around 1,000 units. Consequently, the average occupancy across the Atlanta market is predicted to decline slightly by 30 basis points, settling at around 90.2% by the end of the year.
Atlanta, recognized for its significant apartment construction activity in recent years, is now seeing a stabilization of its market fundamentals. As of Q4 2023, the metro area had over 30,000 units under construction. This development is well-balanced between urban and suburban areas, with projects ongoing in 27 of the 34 submarkets. Midtown Atlanta, in particular, stands out with the largest share of construction, contributing 20% or nearly 6,000 units to the total. The boom in this area is fueled by a mix of employment opportunities and diverse cultural amenities, making it an increasingly popular choice for residents.
Despite facing challenges like stringent underwriting standards, rising costs of capital, and increased construction expenses, which have led to project delays, there’s still room for optimism in the Atlanta market. New construction starts have diminished over the past few quarters, falling by nearly 50% from 2022 to 2023. So, developers who start projects now are poised to capitalize on new opportunities looking out to 2026. This period is anticipated to align with an economic upturn and a reduction in the pace of new unit deliveries, providing a strategic market advantage. Atlanta is expected to sustain its status as one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas, and investors and developers who navigate the short-term challenges will find themselves well-positioned for future growth and success.
Average Monthly Mortgage Payment
Average Monthly Rent
The anticipated arrival of 14,800 new units in Atlanta in 2024 is expected to continue moderating average rents across the market, marking the second consecutive year of such a trend. Rents are projected to undergo negative growth in the first half of the year. However, if absorption aligns with the 2024 forecast, operators might witness a shift towards positive rent growth by midyear, albeit at a modest rate of 1.6% by the end of 2024.
In the Atlanta market, the return of rent growth is not a matter of if, but when. Current indicators suggest that the spring leasing season of 2025 will herald the resurgence of rent growth, returning to the typical range of high 3.0% to low 4.0%. Despite the overall trend, certain submarkets in 2024 are expected to outperform others. Buckhead, one of Atlanta’s most upscale submarkets, is projected to see a 2.5% rent increase by year’s end. Similarly, peripheral submarkets on the outskirts of the metro, which are less affected by supply growth, are likely to experience steady rent appreciation.
Overall, 2024 is shaping up to be a transitional year for Atlanta’s rental market, moving from the sluggishness of 2023 towards a more normalized and stable market in 2025.
| Submarket | Q4 2023 Stabilized Occupancy | Q4 2024 Stabilized Occupancy (f) | Annual Occupancy Change (2024/2023) | Q4 2023 Average Monthly Rent | Q4 2024 Average Monthly Rent (f) | Annual Rent Change (2024/2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulding County | 91.8% | 91.6% | -0.2% | $1,705 | $1,806 | 6.0% |
| Newton County | 90.3% | 89.9% | -0.4% | $1,414 | $1,468 | 3.8% |
| Fayette County | 93.0% | 92.8% | -0.2% | $1,701 | $1,757 | 3.3% |
| Kennesaw | 92.5% | 92.3% | -0.2% | $1,566 | $1,616 | 3.2% |
| Buckhead | 90.5% | 90.3% | -0.2% | $1,936 | $1,984 | 2.5% |
| North Atlanta | 93.9% | 93.8% | -0.2% | $1,644 | $1,682 | 2.3% |
| Westside Atlanta | 85.5% | 85.0% | -0.4% | $1,246 | $1,271 | 2.1% |
| Henry County | 90.1% | 89.7% | -0.3% | $1,560 | $1,592 | 2.0% |
| Cherokee County | 94.1% | 93.9% | -0.2% | $1,652 | $1,684 | 2.0% |
| Northlake | 92.0% | 91.8% | -0.3% | $1,453 | $1,481 | 1.9% |
| Decatur/North Druid Hills | 87.4% | 87.0% | -0.4% | $1,609 | $1,640 | 1.9% |
| Cumberland/Galleria | 91.3% | 91.0% | -0.3% | $1,538 | $1,567 | 1.9% |
| Sandy Springs/Dunwoody | 91.0% | 90.7% | -0.3% | $1,627 | $1,656 | 1.8% |
| North Gwinnett | 92.5% | 92.2% | -0.2% | $1,596 | $1,624 | 1.7% |
| South Atlanta | 87.0% | 86.5% | -0.4% | $1,273 | $1,294 | 1.7% |
| Eastside Atlanta | 92.2% | 91.9% | -0.2% | $1,879 | $1,909 | 1.6% |
| Coweta County | 92.8% | 92.6% | -0.2% | $1,569 | $1,593 | 1.5% |
| Downtown Atlanta | 91.3% | 91.1% | -0.2% | $1,676 | $1,701 | 1.5% |
| Clayton County | 87.4% | 86.8% | -0.5% | $1,229 | $1,247 | 1.5% |
| Barrow County | 95.8% | 95.6% | -0.1% | $1,573 | $1,596 | 1.5% |
| Spalding County | 91.0% | 90.7% | -0.4% | $1,120 | $1,136 | 1.5% |
| Forsyth County | 92.9% | 92.7% | -0.2% | $1,800 | $1,827 | 1.5% |
| Rockdale County | 89.8% | 89.5% | -0.3% | $1,443 | $1,463 | 1.4% |
| Bartow County | 93.6% | 93.4% | -0.2% | $1,482 | $1,499 | 1.2% |
| Dawson County | 83.1% | 82.6% | -0.5% | $1,669 | $1,688 | 1.1% |
| Southeast DeKalb | 86.6% | 86.1% | -0.5% | $1,253 | $1,266 | 1.0% |
| Carroll County | 92.8% | 92.4% | -0.4% | $1,160 | $1,171 | 1.0% |
| North Fulton | 91.7% | 91.5% | -0.3% | $1,781 | $1,798 | 1.0% |
| Outlying Gwinnett County | 92.8% | 92.5% | -0.2% | $1,590 | $1,602 | 0.8% |
| Douglas County | 93.0% | 92.9% | -0.2% | $1,483 | $1,494 | 0.8% |
| Midtown Atlanta | 90.8% | 90.5% | -0.3% | $2,072 | $2,087 | 0.7% |
| South Fulton | 83.8% | 83.3% | -0.5% | $1,374 | $1,382 | 0.6% |
| West Midtown Atlanta | 90.6% | 90.3% | -0.3% | $1,717 | $1,723 | 0.4% |
| Walton County | 93.9% | 93.7% | -0.2% | $1,513 | $1,508 | -0.3% |
| Market | 90.5% | 90.2% | -0.3% | $1,577 | $1,603 | 1.6% |
4Q 2023 Unit Inventory
Number of Units Under Construction
Number of Units UC Delivering
In the Next 4 Quarters
| Submarket | Unit Inventory: 4Q 2023 | Units Under Construction | % of Existing Inventory UC | % of Total UC | Units UC Delivering In the Next 4 Quarters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow County | 948 | 256 | 27.0% | 0.8% | 254 |
| Bartow County | 4,718 | 560 | 11.9% | 1.8% | 342 |
| Buckhead | 26,855 | 501 | 1.9% | 1.6% | 467 |
| Carroll County | 3,353 | 110 | 3.3% | 0.4% | 104 |
| Cherokee County | 11,451 | 1,498 | 13.1% | 4.9% | 556 |
| Clayton County | 25,565 | 560 | 2.2% | 1.8% | 514 |
| Coweta County | 5,522 | 199 | 3.6% | 0.7% | 192 |
| Cumberland/Galleria | 54,174 | 1,448 | 2.7% | 4.7% | 885 |
| Dawson County | 1,527 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Decatur/North Druid Hills | 21,680 | 843 | 3.9% | 2.8% | 448 |
| Douglas County | 8,187 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Downtown Atlanta | 5,688 | 1,358 | 23.9% | 4.4% | 495 |
| Eastside Atlanta | 19,123 | 602 | 3.1% | 2.0% | 444 |
| Fayette County | 3,164 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Forsyth County | 6,502 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Henry County | 10,352 | 1,163 | 11.2% | 3.8% | 741 |
| Kennesaw | 14,067 | 1,520 | 10.8% | 5.0% | 702 |
| Midtown Atlanta | 20,737 | 3,145 | 15.2% | 10.3% | 1,164 |
| Newton County | 3,293 | 388 | 11.8% | 1.3% | 0 |
| North Atlanta | 22,896 | 2,470 | 10.8% | 8.1% | 950 |
| North Fulton | 21,469 | 787 | 3.7% | 2.6% | 563 |
| North Gwinnett | 31,417 | 1,899 | 6.0% | 6.2% | 896 |
| Northlake | 17,340 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Outlying Gwinnett County | 30,916 | 2,559 | 8.3% | 8.4% | 908 |
| Paulding County | 2,358 | 96 | 4.1% | 0.3% | 93 |
| Rockdale County | 4,151 | 343 | 8.3% | 1.1% | 337 |
| Sandy Springs/Dunwoody | 33,568 | 1,134 | 3.4% | 3.7% | 492 |
| South Atlanta | 18,022 | 1,054 | 5.8% | 3.5% | 928 |
| South Fulton | 9,457 | 1,510 | 16.0% | 4.9% | 555 |
| Southeast DeKalb | 30,157 | 1,016 | 3.4% | 3.3% | 539 |
| Spalding County | 1,645 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| Walton County | 1,224 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0 |
| West Midtown Atlanta | 14,699 | 2,768 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 962 |
| Westside Atlanta | 17,019 | 763 | 4.5% | 2.5% | 332 |
| Market | 503,244 | 30,550 | 6.1% | 100.0% | 14,863 |
The latest data from MSCI reveals that the sales volume for conventional multifamily assets in Atlanta ended 2023 on a muted note. While it’s typical for sales to be finalized in the last days of the year and for data consolidation to take several weeks, a significant change in the overall trend from an expected uptick in volume seems unlikely. The fourth quarter of 2023 experienced a decline in sales volume to $820.5 million, the lowest for a fourth quarter in over a decade. The year’s total transaction volume stood at $3.6 billion, encompassing 84 individual asset sales, which marks a 47% decrease in dollar volume compared to the previous year. Investment in Atlanta continues to be dominated by out-of-state investors, with national firms contributing approximately 80% of the buyer volume in the past year.
Looking towards 2024, if interest rates stabilize or decrease, Atlanta’s enduring appeal as a leading multifamily investment market could offer valuable opportunities for astute investors. This scenario, coupled with the potential for more attractively priced deals, suggests promising long-term investment prospects in the Atlanta market.
*Most Active Buyers and Sellers are based on the sale volume of apartment units.
* Trailing 4Q average PPU
* Preliminary Data from RCA – Individual transaction $2.5M +
P=Preliminary
| Sector | Employment Change 2023 to 2024 | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Employment | 38,600 | 1.3% |
| Manufacturing | 700 | 0.4% |
| Construction | 1,200 | 0.8% |
| Trade, Transport., & Utilities | 5,900 | 0.9% |
| Information | (3,000) | -2.6% |
| Financial Activities | 3,000 | 1.4% |
| Professional & Business Services | 3,500 | 0.6% |
| Education & Health Services | 11,600 | 2.8% |
| Government | 5,900 | 1.7% |
| Leisure & Hospitality | 9,100 | 2.9% |
| Other Services | 700 | 0.7% |
Facing challenges like higher interest rates, lingering inflation, and declining commercial real estate values, the metro Atlanta economy is expected to experience some slowdown in 2024, but not to the extent of the national economy. Atlanta remains a highly attractive destination for corporate relocations. Notable developments on this front include both Airbnb and Nike establishing East Coast hubs in West Midtown, following the trend of several Fortune 500 companies, such as BlackRock, Meta, and Honeywell, setting up technology-related operations in the area. The healthcare sector in Atlanta is also poised for significant growth, with multiple systems constructing new facilities to cater to the metro’s expanding population. Emory University Hospital Midtown is progressing on its $500 million Winship Cancer Institute tower, and Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta is developing a $1.5 billion hospital and campus expansion in Brookhaven, set to open in 2025. These expansions and investments will bolster hiring in 2024, helping Atlanta outpace the wider nation when it comes to job growth.
