Trailing 12-month deliveries of 8,262 units have outpaced absorption of 4,912 units, sustaining lease-up competition and contributing to a 110 basis point annual occupancy decline to 91.4%. Nevertheless, there were 2,127 absorptions in Q2 alone, contributing to a 20 basis point gain from Q1.
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The supply pipeline is downshifting, with trailing 12-month starts declining 24% to 7,390 units and 12,857 units remaining under construction at 5.2% of inventory, signaling a path toward reduced delivery pressure by mid-2027.
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Effective rents of $1,713 per unit reflect a 4.0% annual decline, though two consecutive quarters of sequential growth suggest an early pricing inflection as the market moves past its supply cycle peak.
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MARKET OUTLOOK
Tampa's multifamily market is navigating the late stages of its most significant supply cycle in recent history. Trailing 12-month starts have pulled back 24%...
