Each year the largest Wall Street banks and global asset managers publish their outlooks for the coming economic cycle. These reports shape how institutional investors position portfolios and how economists think about the year ahead. For 2026, the core themes are clear: steady growth, a cooling labor market, a more accommodative Federal Reserve and continued AI-driven productivity gains.
This roundup summarizes the 2026 U.S. outlooks from twelve of the most influential firms: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo, UBS, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, BlackRock, Vanguard and PIMCO.
The goal is simple. Cut through the noise and show where the Street agrees, where it disagrees and what it means for the economy and markets.
| Institution | GDP Growth 2026 | Employment View | Equity Market View | Key Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 2% | Cooling labor demand, unemployment to hover 4.5% | S&P TARGET = $7,600 | AI-led productivity, gradual Fed easing, consumer spending slows but avoids recession |
| JPMorgan | 1-2% | Unemployment drifts to mid-4% | S&P TARGET = $7,500 | Early boost from tax refunds and AI capex, tariffs and Fed path shape growth |
| Morgan Stanley | 1.8% | Gradual cooling in hiring | S&P TARGET = $7,800 | Productivity gains offset policy headwinds, Fed cuts more than markets expect |
| Bank of America | 2.4% | Resilient but uneven across markets | S&P TARGET = $7,100; Positive w/ volatility | Strong AI investment, supportive fiscal policy, inflation easing, uneven labor conditions |
| U.S. Bank | 1.8% | Conditions remain stable, yet fragile. Unemployment to 4.5%. | Constructive selective, moderately bullish | Resilient consumer, inflation near 2.8%, rates drifting to 3.25%, plus support from the One Big Beautiful Bill |
| Wells Fargo | 2.4% | Hiring slows, but remains stable. Unemployment to 4.9% | S&P TARGET = $7,400-$7,600 | Tax relief and easier policy support growth, inflation moderates, spending plateaus |
| UBS | 2% | Softening labor market, unemployment stays below 5% | S&P TARGET = $7,700 | Moderate growth, AI supports productivity, softer labor market, focus on quality companies |
| Barclays | 2% | Cooling hiring due, unemployment down to 4.2% | S&P TARGET = $7,400 | Rate cuts relieve pressure, valuations stretched, slower hiring and cautious consumers |
| Deutsche Bank | 2.1% | Weaker labor, unemployment to 4.6% | S&P TARGET = $7,500 | Higher tariffs weigh on growth, weaker labor market, AI and tech support earnings |
| BlackRock | 2% | Softer demand, no deep job slump | Moderately positive | Higher real rates and debt constrain growth, selective equity returns, AI boosts productivity |
| Vanguard | 2.25% | Normalizing labor, slight unemployment uptick | Cautious, favors bond and value stocks | Trend-like growth, sticky inflation, rich valuations cap returns despite AI upside |
| PIMCO | 1.5–2% | Gradual cooling in hiring and wage growth | Value, cyclicals improve | Modest growth, tariffs and tech interact, Fed near 3%, value and cyclicals favored |
Goldman expects the U.S. to grow near long-run potential in 2026 with AI-driven productivity supporting output. The labor market cools but avoids recession territory. The firm sees moderate equity upside and stresses quality and AI-linked sectors.
For the full Goldman Sachs investment report, click here.
For the full Goldman Sachs market report, click here.
JPMorgan expects growth to fluctuate, with early strength from refunds and AI spending and GDP settling near a 2% pace. Hiring slows and unemployment rises. Equity outlook is constructive with broadening earnings.
For the full JPMorgan report, click here.
Bank of America is among the most optimistic, calling for 2.4% GDP driven by AI and fiscal policy. Uneven labor conditions persist. Equities should rise but with higher volatility.
For the full Bank of America report, click here.
U.S. Bank expects a 1.8% GDP growth with unemployment in the mid-4% range as the labor market cools but remains stable. Optimistic for equities, supported by rising earnings, easing rates and a still-resilient consumer.
For the full U.S. Bank report, click here.
Wells Fargo sees 2.4% GDP supported by tax policy and easing conditions. Inflation moderates. Equities benefit from easier policy but returns are moderate.
For the full Wells Fargo report, click here.
UBS expects about 2% growth with softening labor but no sharp downturn. Equity views positive with focus on quality and AI themes.
For the full UBS report, click here.
Barclays forecasts about 2% U.S. growth with slowing hiring. Equity upside exists but valuations increase risk.
For the full Barclays report, click here.
Deutsche Bank expects U.S. growth a bit above 2%, helped by tax relief, defense spending and AI investment. Unemployment nudges higher, while equities look constructive with an S&P 500 target near 7,500 but tariffs and inflation remain key risks.
For the full Deutsche report, click here.
BlackRock highlights structural forces like high debt and higher real rates. GDP growth near 2%. Equities are positive but selective with greater volatility.
For the full BlackRock report, click here.
Vanguard forecasts 2.25% growth, normalizing labor and persistent inflation. Equity returns may lag due to rich valuations.
For the full Vanguard report, click here.
Taken together, the 2026 outlooks from major financial institutions point to an economy that is slowing but still fundamentally resilient, supported by steady GDP growth, a cooling yet stable labor market and rising productivity driven by AI investment. While inflation remains above target and policy uncertainty lingers, the broad consensus is that the U.S. will avoid recession and continue expanding at a moderate pace. Equity markets are expected to deliver constructive but more selective returns, with leadership gradually broadening beyond the mega-cap AI names that defined recent cycles. For investors, 2026 is shaping up as a year that rewards discipline, diversification and a focus on quality, as the economy transitions toward a more sustainable, post-inflation growth environment.
