MARKET SNAPSHOT

2026 Tucson Forecast

2025

$1,118

$1,115

89.2%

88.9%

542

1,319

467

237

A muted start to 2026 deliveries gives way to a back-half completion wave: net deliveries are forecast to rise to roughly 1,319 units over the 12 months ending Q4 2026, with the bulk landing mid-to-late year—including about 1,007 units in Q3 2026 alone.
The 2026 rent outlook points to stabilization rather than a clean rebound: effective rents are forecast to soften again, ending Q4 2026 near $1,115 per unit, but the pace of decline is clearly easing. Netting it out, 2026 pricing power looks capped, constrained by elevated availability and competitive lease dynamics in the most active corridors.
The 2026 outlook points to a higher-availability environment and a lower occupancy plateau, as a back-half delivery wave is projected to outpace demand. Net absorption is forecast at 237 units in 2026 against 1,304 units of net deliveries, which would pull overall occupancy to 87.5% by Q4 2026 and stabilized occupancy to 88.9%.