MARKET SNAPSHOT

2026 Tampa Forecast

2025

FORECASTED ANNUAL CHANGE

2026

$1,768

Q4 AVG. EFFECTIVE RENT

-1.0%

ANNUAL CHANGE

$1,750

Q4 Avg. Effective Rent

91.4%

Q4 AVG. OCCUPANCY

-30 BPS

ANNUAL CHANGE

91.1%

Q4 Avg. Occupancy

8,192

2025 COMPLETIONS

6,734

10 Yr. Avg. Annual Completions

7,559

2026 COMPLETIONS

4,962

2025 NET ABSORPTION

5,166

10 Yr. Avg. Annual Absorption

6,126

2026 NET ABSORPTION

Source: CoStar
Key Market Themes for 2026
  • The metro has added more than 270,000 residents over the past five years, reaching roughly 3.4 million people, and while net migration has cooled from its 2022 peak, population growth continues to outpace national averages, keeping Tampa among the fastest-growing large U.S. markets.

  • Tampa has roughly 11,000 units under construction, concentrated in Downtown Tampa, Pasco County, Central Pinellas, and Downtown St. Petersburg, which together account for about 4,750 units. Once delivered, the pipeline will expand metro inventory by approximately 4.5%, above the national average of 2.6% but well below higher-supply Florida peers such as Miami-Dade County.

  • Rent growth in Tampa has returned to negative territory after three consecutive quarters of gains, as rental demand slowed meaningfully in the back half of 2025. Net absorption fell to just 1,060 units in the second half of the year, while nearly 3,800 units were delivered—allowing new supply to outpace demand by nearly a four-to-one margin and placing renewed pressure on rents.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Tampa’s multifamily outlook for 2026 is best characterized as transitional, with near-term softness giving way to improving fundamentals as the supply cycle matures...

Featured Florida Research Reports:

Jhamil Moore - Senior Advisor

Jhamil Moore

Senior Advisor
Michael Barrett

Michael Barrett

Associate
Gonzo Bruno Rivera

Gonzalo Rivera

Associate

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