MARKET SNAPSHOT

2026 National Forecast

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2025

FORECASTED ANNUAL CHANGE

2026

$1,746

Q4 AVG. EFFECTIVE RENT

ANNUAL CHANGE

$1,772

Q4 Avg. Effective Rent

93.1%

Q4 AVG. OCCUPANCY

ANNUAL CHANGE

93.2%

Q4 Avg. Occupancy

533,848

2025 COMPLETIONS

10 Yr. Avg. Annual Completions

260,149

2026 COMPLETIONS

438,622

2025 NET ABSORPTION

10 Yr. Avg. Annual Absorption

271,774

2026 NET ABSORPTION

Source: CoStar

Key Market Themes for 2026

NEW UNIT COMPLETIONS TO DECLINE SHARPLY IN 2026

Following a peak delivery cycle in 2024–2025, national multifamily completions are projected to fall materially in 2026 as construction starts retreat to cycle lows and the under construction pipeline thins. Annual deliveries are expected to decline to approximately 260,000 units, easing the supply pressures that weighed on occupancy and rent growth over the past several years.
RENT GROWTH TO IMPROVE MODESTLY THROUGH 2026

National rent growth weakened through the second half of 2025 amid softer labor-market momentum, weaker consumer sentiment, and elevated lease-up competition. While pricing power is expected to remain limited early in 2026, rent growth should improve sequentially as supply pressure eases and absorption gains traction against a slowing delivery schedule.
TECH-CENTRIC MARKETS POSITIONED TO OUTPERFORM IN 2026

Tech-oriented metros are expected to lead rent growth in 2026, supported by structurally constrained supply pipelines and a renewed capital and hiring tailwind tied to the AI investment cycle. Markets such as San Jose, San Francisco, the East Bay, Seattle, and Orange County are forecast to post some of the strongest rent growth nationally.

MARKET OUTLOOK

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The U.S. multifamily market is entering 2026 with the development cycle clearly past its peak, setting the stage for a gradual rebalancing after several years of outsized supply...