The supply cycle is resetting fast. Deliveries are rolling over and the forward pipeline is thinning, setting up materially less lease-up competition into 2026.
The 2026 rent forecast points to a flat-to-slightly positive year, with effective rents projected to improve modestly by Q4 2026 (+0.3% YoY; ~$1,532/unit).
Occupancy performance will be submarket-driven. Fort Walton Beach has the most near-term supply to digest, Panama City is the tightest with the thinnest pipeline.
Florida’s Panhandle is moving into 2026 with fundamentals that look closer to “stabilization” than “re-acceleration,” driven primarily by a material downshift in new supply...
